Episodes
Tuesday May 10, 2022
Tuesday May 10, 2022
A popular Reddit thread is titled, “What’s a ‘Today is going to suck’ red flag. A top up-voted response was, “Waking up with a huge headache,” and another was “When you get all the red lights on your commute.” Each of us could add a comment to that thread, right? Per the National Institute of Health, “Consistent with this focus, an anxiety-linked negative expectancy bias reflects an inflated tendency for anxious individuals to expect an increased probability of negative relative to positive events.” In other words, when people expect negative events, bad luck, or suboptimal outcomes - that’s what they will observe, and perceive, of the world around them. This frame of thinking might be accurate, but it is also damaging to morale if allowed to continue for long spans of time. In this episode, Doc will share his current observations of negative expectation bias, identifies times it has happened throughout history, and offers research-supported and anecdotal suggestions to mitigate the languishing impact of negative expectation bias. He will read related excerpts from his book, The Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times (VOI). WE SEEK AND ACCEPT EVIDENCE ALIGNED TO OUR BIASES. Per Psychology Today, “A bias is a tendency, inclination, or prejudice toward or against something or someone. Some biases are positive and helpful—like choosing to only eat foods that are considered healthy or staying away from someone who has knowingly caused harm. But biases are often based on stereotypes, rather than actual knowledge of an individual or circumstance. Whether positive or negative, such cognitive shortcuts can result in prejudgments that lead to rash decisions or discriminatory practices.” Our life experiences shape our biases, as do our families, as do our sources of information. NORMALCY BIAS. One of the most-prominent biases in the safety community is normalcy bias - or the belief that an event isn’t severe enough to warrant a course-altering reaction. And, things will return to normal in a very short time. If this is how we think, then that’s how we will perceive the events that we observe in our world. People rooted to normalcy biases typically perform poorly during crisis situations. They fail to act, or the suddenly-changed context overwhelms them. They are slow to adapt. And, life and death is measured in the seconds between the onset of an emergency and one’s reaction to it. FILTERING FOR NEGATIVE EXPECTATIONS. On the other hand, if we expect negative news, then we will perceive news as negative - or filter out neutral or positive news as it doesn’t match our expectation for bad news. It’s also remarkably hard to convince people that authentic events are not matched to their expectation bias. In other words, if you expect things to be good and they are, in fact, negative, you’ll have a predisposition to perceive things as good. Such a person might be happy and easy going, but they are also the last one into the lifeboat or out of the burning building. MEDIA ABHORS IN A VACUUM. “The media abhors an information vacuum. It will take what information it has and amplify it, completing the ensemble with speculation when deemed necessary. Uncertainty makes us crave more information, so many people spend a lot of time looking for news updates, refreshing screens every few minutes to seek reassurance. As people lose proportion and perspective, they spiral down a whirlpool of confirmation (expectation) bias.” Pg. 50 of VOI. MARTIAN ATTACK. “On October 28, 1938, many Americans believed they were being invaded by Martians. This erroneous belief was the result of a Halloween stunt orchestrated by Orson Welles in which he adapted H. G. Wells’s War of the Worlds to the radio and then broadcast the play as though it was actually happening. “[A] few short weeks before this broadcast, millions of listeners had kept their radios tuned for the latest news from a Europe apparently about to go to war.” Radio listeners therefore had a preexisting expectation bias toward catastrophically bad news. In the weeks that followed, Psychology professor Howard Cantril of Princeton University and colleagues interviewed people to try and understand their reactions to the broadcast. Of those that mistook the radio play as a live news report, almost none of them tuned to another station where they would have quickly found that life was completely normal.” Pg. 67 of VOI. HOW TO LIMIT YOUR BIASES. Humans have biases - they are part of our survival wiring. Acknowledge when your biases are influencing your perceptions - you’ll probably be aware of this - more than you think. Listen to others’ perspectives. Vary your information sources. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. This podcast and blog post represent the opinions of David P. Perrodin and his guests to the show. This is episode 181 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 05-10-2022.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Tuesday May 03, 2022
Tuesday May 03, 2022
It is legally recognized that time is cleanly divided into years, months, weeks, days, hours, minutes, and seconds. But in certain chaos conditions, the construct of time might distort and collapse into what is known as a flow state. All that matters is the moment. And while we convince ourselves that we will observe and respond to bountiful warning signs, we’ll learn that the collapse of physical time is a hard bifurcation that appears “obvious and avoidable” in hindsight. In this episode, Doc talks about the 2016 Gatlinburg wildfire’s collapse of physical time and reads excerpts from pages 10-11 in the book ‘The Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times’ by David P. Perrodin. PIGEON FORGE AND GATLINBURG WILDFIRES. “Consider the wildfires that killed 14 people and destroyed nearly 20,000 acres in the Pigeon Forge and Gatlinburg areas of the Great Smoky Mountains of Eastern Tennessee in November and December 2016. More specifically, imagine being among the residents and vacationers in the Gatlinburg, Tennessee area attempting to flee down the mountainside at night, in the dark, in some cases encountering downed trees and abandoned automobiles blocking roadways, while walls of flame consuming trees and underbrush rapidly approach the road from both sides. “At 8:30 p.m. on November 28, 2016, high winds and roaring flames disabled cell towers, melted fiber-optic cables, disrupted digital radio signals and shut down phone lines. Backup systems and protocols failed.” Everything cut out in an instant.” LULLED INTO FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY. “Emily Walpole, a NIST scientist who studied the incident, uncovered a perplexing finding in her analysis of the multiday fire. “It’s possible that you get used to smelling smoke and it basically lulls you into a false sense of security . . . the fire could be miles away and be producing smoke.” Likewise, some resorts and vacationers in the area ignored the nearby threat until it was almost too late. “It seemed that people expected that if a large wildfire requiring evacuation was going to happen, they would be told. Instead, many had to find out on their own.” Resorts closed, issuing eleventh-hour evacuation orders as their hope that the fires would spare their area was extinguished, while the fire was not. One such couple relates how it was not until they texted a picture of encroaching fire to their firefighter son—who replied for them to get out of the area immediately—that their own perception of their immediate situation changed.” THE FIRE WAS OBSERVED TWO DAYS BEFORE HELL BROKE LOOSE - SO WHY WASN'T THE PUBLIC ALERTED? Survivors blame park rangers and other federal personnel for failing to adequately alert the town about the fire's danger and speed. Insurance companies also have filed litigation in the case. The fire started as a small blaze Nov. 23, 2016, the day before Thanksgiving, on the popular Chimney Tops trail in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Authorities said it appeared two teenage boys set the fire, which grew in subsequent days until it became an inferno that swept into Gatlinburg on Nov. 28. INSUFFICIENT NOTIFICATION LAWSUIT CAN CONTINUE. In 2020, Senior U.S. District Judge Ronnie Greer stated that the government failed to properly alert neighbors of the risk of the fire. "The United States cannot rely on the press releases and an E-Blast to satisfy a requirement to notify “Park Neighbors, Park visitors, and local residents” when it doesn’t tell the Court where the press releases and E-Blast were sent to," Greer wrote. He continued: "Likewise, the United States relies on the information posted to websites and social media accounts to satisfy the requirement. The problem with this argument is the same as the problem with the press release and E-Blast argument. The information posted on the websites gave notice to the visitors of the Park’s website, the Instagram posts may have given notice to the people who follow the Park on Instagram, etc. But posting information on websites and social media accounts is not the same as notifying “Park neighbors, Park visitors and local residents . . . of all planned and unplanned fire management activities that have the potential to impact them. RELYING ON SMART DEVICES. Many of us rely so heavily on “smart” devices on a daily basis when hell is not breaking loose. We have trained ourselves to assume that the technology that allows us to receive the information we need to navigate our home turf on a typically uneventful day will always work because it always has worked. This assumption is our torus, our normalcy bias. When your observations are mismatched to your technology, choose a course of action to get out of harm’s way. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. This podcast and blog post represent the opinions of David P. Perrodin and his guests to the show. This is episode 180 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 05-03-2022.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Wednesday Apr 27, 2022
Wednesday Apr 27, 2022
In 2017, America’s tallest dam complex had partially, but catastrophically, failed. The Oroville Dam, located in northern California, left operators scrambling to figure out how to manage a main spillway failure, eroding secondary spillway, and a rising water level in the reservoir. Remember those tense days when America was riveted to the nightly news for the latest updates? Remember the engineers who calculated that Sacramento, which is in a geological basin, would be hip-deep in water if the Oroville complex collapsed? The thing is, this didn’t make the nightly news - at least nothing more than five seconds of video and another ten seconds of narrative. But, that didn’t mean Americans, Californians, and people near Oroville didn’t have questions. They had a lot of questions. In fact, people across the world were thirsty for updates about Oroville - and they received them from Juan Browne. In this episode, Doc discusses Chapter 2: Face Validity, from his book, ‘The Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. He reads an excerpt about Juane Browne and the Oroville Dam and points out how there are reliable, organic journalists around us - and how we can responsibly break our own news to inform our communities and friends. David will reference pages 41-45 from The Velocity of Information. THE OROVILLE DAM. Completed in 1968, Oroville Dam was a showpiece of the California State Water Project. Located on the Feather River, east of the city of Oroville and 70 miles north of Sacramento, the earthen embankment dam was used for flood control, water storage, and hydroelectric power generation. The dam was modern and, until 2017, had an insignificant history. But as all structures, entropy took its toll. 2017 SPILLWAY FAILURE. On February 8, 2017, during a routine water release, a large portion of the center spillway collapsed. With fears that continued use of the spillway could erode further toward the gates and completely collapse the structure, a decision was made to pass water over the emergency spillway. On February 11, 2017, Oroville Dam, America’s tallest, at 770 feet, overtopped and damaged its emergency spillway for the first time in its history, forcing the evacuation of nearly 200,000 people. The unnatural disaster took about one billion dollars to repair and caused millions more in property damage. JUAN BROWN’S FIRST VIDEO OF THE DAM. “Just one day prior to the incident, on February 10, Browne made his first video about the dam. Fearing that the government would soon restrict air traffic over the site, Browne, a commercial pilot for American Airlines, got into his 1946 Luscombe 8A single-engine plane to offer the world the rarest of bird’s-eye view. Browne used a GoPro Hero5 camera to shoot the video. He added narration and published it to his YouTube channel, @blancolirio, the next day. The video immediately went viral. It has since amassed more than 500,000 views. In the five-minute, ten-second video, Browne shows a command of the scene, the situation, and the possible consequences of the dam’s failure. The view from 3,000 feet is intimate and dramatic. With no other planes in the sky, and no people at the site, the rarity of the vantage is apparent. One gets the feeling of being led on a backstage tour. Throughout, Browne’s tone is even and informative, never breathless or excited. “That’s the big concern going forward: how much erosion are we going to get?” Browne says at one point, summarizing the fears of his neighbors who were watching. That concern was justified. BROWNE BECAME THE TRUSTED SOURCE. Up in the air, seeking truth, and answering the questions that mattered to neighbors fearing for their futures is when things took off for Juan’s YouTube Channel. He was granted special access to the dam complex to film his updates and to interview workers. When he appeared at state informational meetings, the audience sought his input as much as it did the engineers at the front table. “As the months-long repair effort went on, Browne continued his reports. Over time, he was perceived as an honest broker by the state and the engineering firm, and was allowed a unique level of access to the dam. “Nobody else was really doing it with this level of detail or interest,” Browne said. PEOPLE WANT THE FACTS. Juan also believes that is why the public responded so strongly. “There is a huge void, or a huge market for, just the facts,” Browne said. “People really responded to that, and it seems to be so lacking in today’s modern infotainment industry. They just wanted the facts.” THREE LESSONS FROM JUAN. (A) See it for yourself, (B) You have not because you ask not, and (C,) Be curious, not cunning. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. This podcast and blog post represent the opinions of David P. Perrodin and his guests to the show. This is episode 179 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 04-26-2022.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Tuesday Apr 19, 2022
Tuesday Apr 19, 2022
Between 1933 and 1944, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt delivered 31 evening radio addresses to ameliorate the fears and concerns of the American people as well as to inform them of the positions and actions taken by the U.S. Government. The addresses were both novel and sticking. Ranging from 11 to 44 minutes, these informal addresses resembled a pull-up-your-chair fireside chat atmosphere more than a formal projection originating behind an ordained podium. In this episode, Doc examines FDR’s fireside chats as he unpacked them (for messaging strategies during uncertain times) in his book, ‘The Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times.’ Doc notes striking similarities to the style of presentation adopted by Ukraine President Volodymer Zelnskyy. Has Zelenskyy managed to modernize the propaganda formula that was a resounding success for FDR? ROOSEVELT’S FIRESIDE CHATS - THE MAGIC IS THE MEDIUM. The following excerpts are from pages 96-98 of Dr. Perrodin’s book, The Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. “Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s presidency stands out not only for its duration but also the challenges he and America faced together from 1933 to 1945, from the Great Depression to World War II. The enormity of those two challenges, but especially the Depression, which welcomed FDR to office, forced him to the radio airwaves, early and often, in his now famous ‘fireside chats.’ The fireside chat was the creation of a White House aide. The idea was that beaming the president’s words, live, from his house to yours, unfiltered by time or editors, would allow unprecedented intimacy between the president and the public. “To many, the Great Depression confirmed what they had suspected all along: individuals no longer mattered in the new economic order (1).” THE FIRST FIRESIDE CHAT. “The first fireside chat went out live just eight days after FDR’s inauguration, on March 12, 1933. “I want to talk for a few minutes with the people of the United States about banking,” he said at the start of the inaugural chat (2). The fireside chats were “the first media events—live, pre-planned, extraordinary broadcasts that riveted the attention of the nation—in American history,” writes history professor David Ryfe (3). “Roosevelt often used the ‘you’ form,” Ryfe continues “throughout the chats, he is concerned to ‘tell you,’ ‘interest you,’ ‘make it clear to you,’ and ‘make you understand (4).’” It was as if the president were speaking directly to each individual. FEATURES OF THE FIRESIDE CHAT: FDR vs. ZELENSKYY. The appeal and enduring success of FDR’s fireside chats are attributable to several features, many of which are observed in the addresses of Ukraine President Zelenskyy amidst the 2022 military invasion-conflict by Russia. (A) Talk of the particulars and not mechanics: During the 1933 banking crisis, FDR didn’t speak at lengths explaining the banking holiday (closed banks), but rather the “fortitude” of Americans and the inconvenience and hardships they endured due to closed banks. Zelensky appeals to emotions, strength, and allegiance - even if he seemingly enrolls allies that are not formally allies, such as NATO. He avoids updates on the specifics of the conflict, but does not soften the devastation. (B) Short duration speeches: FDR’s fireside chats were between 11 and 44 minutes. This kept his message relevant without becoming rambling or redundant. During chaotic times, people have less tolerance and information-processing capacity for long-winded messaging. Zelensky’s addresses to Ukrainians mirror these figures. (C) Consistency: FDR spoke in plain language and without walk-up promotion. Zelenskyy is similar with his use of common language (and recognizable visuals) and his green-henley shirts have not yielded to suits. ZELENSKYY TALKING TO THE WORLD AS FDR ADDRESSED A NATION. As speeches are now just a smart-device away, Zelenskyy tends to address his countrymen through his addresses to the European Union, NATO, and Congress. And while the world tuned into FDR’s fireside chats, FDR was never addressing the world - he was talking to fellow Americans as the world listened in. CITATIONS: (1) Ryfe, David Michael. “From Media Audience to Media Public: A Study of Letters Written in Reaction to FDR’s Fireside Chats.” Media, Culture and Society 23 (November 1, 2001): 767–781. doi: 10.1177/016344301023006005; (2) History.com Editors. “FDR Broadcasts First ‘Fireside Chat’ During the Great Depression.” History.com. November 24, 2009. https://www.history.com /this -day -in-history /fdr -gives -first -fireside -chat; (3) Ryfe, From Media Audience to Media Public, 767–781; (4) Ibid. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. This podcast and blog post represent the opinions of David P. Perrodin and his guests to the show. This is episode 178 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 04-19-2022.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Wednesday Apr 13, 2022
Wednesday Apr 13, 2022
Stagnant, sweltering summer days cocoon us with unshakable pulsing heat and sticky humidity in what is known as a wet bulb effect. It’s downright uncomfortable. Our attention deviates from things at hand and centers on making an escape to our air-conditioned cars and dwellings, but the reprieve is temporary - and some of us lack the luxury of climate control other than sitting beneath the canopy of trees and sipping on a cold drink. But, it’s that combination of heat and humidity which agitates us, saps our energy, stifles our motivation, and can even knock us out with heatstroke. It’s uncomfortable just thinking about it - and that’s what most people have been doing the past two years, sweltering in their minds - bad news is the heat and unrelenting information is the humidity. In today’s show, Doc explains the wet bulb effect as it relates to information and human attention. We’ll learn how human attention works and ways to mitigate information overload during uncertain times. Doc will read an excerpt about Wet Bulbs from pages 74-75 of his book, ‘The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times.’ WHAT IS A WET BULB? “A wet bulb temperature is taken when you wrap an ambient-temperature thermometer bulb in a wet muslin fabric, exposing it to air flow to promote evaporation, and then measure the difference in temperature. When the air is hot and humid, evaporation is stifled and the wet bulb and dry bulb measurements will be close—too close for comfort. We are saturated, swimming in sweat, and overheating.” COMPETITIVE CYCLISTS, WET BULBS, AND MAKING CRITICAL DECISIONS. Competitive cyclists, like former Soviet National team member Nikolai Razouvaev, rely on the wet bulb measurement to inform their decision to take the bicycle out on a hot and humid day. What can be done to cool down? Perhaps lighter clothing, extra water, frequent breaks, easier terrain, or postponing the outing for a time with a lower wet bulb reading. But what if you do not have an option? What if you must race?” EXAMPLE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL WET BULB EFFECT. “Your phone buzzes. It is a push alert from the newspaper you trust, about the governor’s upcoming press conference on COVID-19. Another alert comes in an hour later: case and death numbers and summary guidance from the press conference.The phone buzzes a third time. It is an emergency alert ordered by the governor; if you had somehow missed his comments earlier. On your way home, a dynamic messaging sign on the freeway encourages you to “mask up.” Your televised football game is interrupted by misty-eyed celebrities urging that “we’re all in this together.” The 11 o’clock news will offer the very latest.” “[In] a global pandemic, at the height of the Information Age, we are all wet bulbs, spinning away. We are not just wet, we are soaked. OPTING IN FOR INFORMATION. And we chose this situation for ourselves.” “[W]e opt in to news push alerts. And we could opt out of emergency alerts, if we so chose. But in both cases, we have decided that the risk of saturation is tolerable compared to the alternative, fear of missing out. The velocity of information is too great to remove ourselves from the equation. MITIGATING THE WET BULB EFFECT. Begin by acknowledging your behaviors. Short-tempered, frustrated, overwhelmed, unable to attend to tasks. These are reactions to stimuli. Change the channel, or better yet, turn off the receiver. The information is still hammering down on you, but if you’ve turned off your receiver, your attention shifts to the hike or the golf game (Aaron Clarey?) and you seemingly be the last person around who hasn’t heard the “latest hyped news” which, actually, likely won’t have a significant impact on your life. And, what are you going to do about it? During uncertain times when media and people feverishly pass headlines, take a pass. You can sample from time to time and get the information that you need. No use in hovering at the buffet table waiting for another pan of wings to be dumped into the trough. OPT IN TO BECOME FORCE IN? Putting a toe in the metaverse, real-time digital tracking of our phones and cars, and Elon Musk’s hints of neural links are all easements (or encroachments?) into a life where opting out will require effort and consequences. How are you preparing for the omnipresent wet bulb? SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. This podcast and blog post represent the opinions of David P. Perrodin and his guests to the show. The content here is for informational purposes only. Please consult with your safety professional regarding the unique needs of yourself or your organization.This is episode 177 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 04-12-2022. Order Doc’s new book today and suggest it as a purchase for your local library! The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Tuesday Mar 29, 2022
Tuesday Mar 29, 2022
Remember fiddling around until the final hour to hunker down and complete an assignment for school or a project for work - even though you knew of the deadline for weeks? There you were, confident you could serviceably complete the task and submit it in a nick of time. WHAT IS PARKINSON’S LAW? Parkinson’s Law is the adage that work will expand to fill the time allotted for its completion. The term was first coined by Cyril Northcote Parkinson in a humorous essay he wrote for “The Economist” in 1955. If someone has 5 hours to rake leaves from a yard - and apprises that task of clearing the small yard might take, at most, 2 hours, the tendency - per Parkinson’s Law, is for the person to take the full 5 hours to rake the leaves. They might rake at a slower pace, take frequent breaks, walk around to assess their progress, adjust their gloves, hat and jacket, and so on. NEW DEFINITION OF PARKINSON’S LAW. In his book The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times, Doc postulates a second interpretation of Parkinson’s Law. In this take, Parkinson’s Law represents the ingrained need for humans to have a distinct ritualistic start and end routine to their work days. He wrote about this in his book, centering on a business owner in Chicago who found people knocking on his door (a closed non-essential virtual reality gaming business), to inquire about renting a table for a few hours - so they could unfold their laptops and “got to work.” BREAKING PARKINSON’S LAW IN CHICAGO. The following is an excerpt (pages 75-76) from the book The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times by David P. Perrodin. “Prior to 2020, Aaron Sawyer’s Redline VR, a virtual reality club and bar in the Ravenswood neighborhood of Chicago, was doing great business. His mega-computers, 3D game configurations, and 360-degree immersive goggles and haptic wearables were something that people could not get at home. He offered the best zombie-battling experience in the city. So much so that Sawyer considered opening a second location (1). Then the pandemic hit. Chicago city government started deciding which businesses were “essential,” and thus allowed to operate, and which were not. Redline VR was not deemed “essential.” Under Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s plan, Redline VR was allowed to reopen in phase four (2) at 25 percent capacity. There was no phase five. There was no revenue coming into the business. So Sawyer pivoted. Again and again (3) Parkinson’s Law states that “work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion (4).” Linda Stone, the consultant who has studied attention behavior, found that during the pandemic, people were checking work emails “at all hours of the night,” as their homes became their workplace (5). At the outset of the pandemic, many people left their office on a Friday, began working remotely the following Monday, and did not return to their offices. Many still have no return date in sight, and a significant number of positions have become permanently remote. Getting out of the home, and into an office setting, became an attractive option for some people. At home, the roles of spouse and mother and caregiver all intersect with the workday. Work now fills the physical space once reserved for family and relaxation. The mind is not always able to differentiate between the two.” REMOTE WORKERS WANTED A PLACE TO GO TO WORK. In May and June 2020, Aaron Sawyer observed an uptick in people asking if they could rent his VR stations, which were similar to work cubicles, for a few hours or for a day. “Redline VR rebranded to offer rented office space, at just fifteen dollars for the day. Curtains and separators were put up so people could keep their social distance and have a work space of their own, away from home and family.” CITATIONS. (1) Aaron Sawyer, interview with the author, August 14, 2020; (2) City of Chicago. “Reopening Chicago.” City of Chicago. 2020. https://www.chicago .gov /city /en /sites /COVID -19 /home /reopening -chicago .html; (3) Sawyer, interview with the author; (4) Parkinson, Cyril Northcote. Parkinson’s Law [And Other Studies in Administration] (Cambridge, MA: The Riverside Press, 1957), 3. http://sas2 .elte .hu /tg /ptorv /Parkinson -s-Law.pdf; (5) Linda Stone, personal communication with the author, August 14, 2020. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. This podcast and blog post represent the opinions of David P. Perrodin and his guests to the show. The content here is for informational purposes only. Please consult with your safety professional regarding the unique needs of yourself or your organization.This is episode 175 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 03-29-2022. Order Doc’s new book today and suggest it as a purchase for your local library! The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Tuesday Mar 22, 2022
Tuesday Mar 22, 2022
What are the differences between crisis and chaos? Is a sudden bifurcation better than a gradual bifurcation? How might a "strange attractor" contribute to the sometimes long duration, and difficult-to-recognize, patterns in chaos? Doc will discuss these questions and read an excerpt pertaining to them from his book 'The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times.' WHAT IS CRISIS? The following excerpts are from pages 139-140 of the book The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. “Crisis implies a decisive point in a dangerous situation with anticipation of an abrupt change to the condition, for better or for worse. [A] crisis is often of short duration and will have an identifiable turning point(s). It tends to scale in a predictable manner. People believe their own actions might resolve a crisis. This is a key distinction between crisis and chaos. While people believe that they can negotiate to resolve a crisis, the mindset when faced with chaos is to survive, or “wait-out” the condition. HARD OR SOFT BIFURCATIONS. A crisis may be characterized by a bifurcation, which is a parameter-dependent change in dynamical behavior. A useful distinction exists between hard (abrupt) and soft (gradual) bifurcations. Hard bifurcation: the ice on a lake slowly warms (temperature is the bifurcation parameter) and suddenly breaks, dropping you into the cold lake. Soft bifurcation: an ice cube (temperature is again the bifurcation parameter) once at a temperature greater than or equal to 32 degrees slowly melts into a glass of Scotch. A soft bifurcation is clearly preferable, particularly because its impacts are dispersed over time. STRANGE ATTRACTORS (Has Nothing To Do With Gravity). As mathematically defined, a crisis occurs with the appearance of a strange attractor. The word “attractor” has nothing to do with gravitation. As in dynamic systems, attractors provide a way to describe the asymptotic behavior of typical orbits. Operationally, this means that there is a dramatic change in the dynamical behavior of the system. The present disconnects from the past and the past behavior has little or no predictive value as the system navigates its way through a profoundly altered landscape. An undetected, racing comet with a 20,000 year orbit could be a strange attractor that alters life on earth. HYPERINFLATION AS A STRANGE ATTRACTOR. In a fiat money economy, sudden-onset hyperinflation might be characterized as a strange attractor resulting in extraordinary behaviors in the country’s monetary system. For example, during the 1923 hyperinflation crisis of the Weimar Republic, “workers were often paid twice per day because prices rose so fast their wages were virtually worthless by lunchtime (1).” In addition, “[f]armers refused to take any form of paper money for their crops. The harvest of 1923 sat in farmers’ warehouses while supermarkets in the cities were empty. Starvation and civil unrest loomed (2).” WHAT IS CHAOS? “Chaos is a state of disorder that is amorphous and without clear turning points. Chaos quickly or gradually settles into outcome basins or creates a new mean. Chaos describes a system that will develop in unpredictable ways and will not scale linearly. It exists on a continuum with degrees of absorption by systems. A state of chaos, due to a lack of, or impossibility of, a scripted response will usually, if not inevitably, spread. Chaos affects the global consciousness, even if only temporarily. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami near Japan was a chaos event that killed 15,899 people and caused the Fukushima nuclear energy plant disaster. CITATIONS: (1) BBC. “Bitesize The Weimar Republic 1918-1929: The Hyperinflation Crisis, 1923.” https://www .bbc .co .uk /bitesize /guides /z9y64j6 /revision /5.; (2) Forbes. “In Hyperinflation’s Aftermath, How Germany Went Back to Gold.” Forbes .co m. June 9, 2011. https://www .forbes .com /2011 /06 /09 /germany -gold -standard.html ?sh =330426c35934. FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. This podcast and blog post represent the opinions of David P. Perrodin and his guests to the show. The content here is for informational purposes only. Please consult with your safety professional regarding the unique needs of yourself or your organization.This is episode 174 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 03-08-2022. GET the book VELOCITY OF INFORMATION. Purchase the preeminent book of scholarship for an uncertain epoch from your favorite bookstore or online retailer and recommend it as a purchase for your local library! The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times (2022) by David P. Perrodin.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Tuesday Mar 08, 2022
Tuesday Mar 08, 2022
The `Conjunction Fallacy' is a fallacy or error in decision making where people judge that a conjunction of two possible events is more likely than one or both of the conjuncts. Here are some examples. EXAMPLE ONE: Doc went to the store and bought tofu, eggplant, broccoli, and frozen meatless lasagna. Is it more likely that Doc is a man or a man who is a vegetarian? EXAMPLE TWO: Doc has a PhD or Doc has a PhD and reads the Wall Street Journal. EXAMPLE THREE: Aaron drove to a party in South Dakota in a Rolls Royce or Aaron drove to a party in South Dakota in a Rolls Royce as is a millionaire. In each example, the former is the correct answer. CONJUNCTION FALLACY: MR. F. HAD A HEART ATTACK. Excerpt from pages 51-52 of the book The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times (2022). In 1983, world-renowned psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman published a ground-breaking study on intuitive human cognitive bias (cite 1). They showed that when subjects are asked the likelihood of several alternatives, including single and joint events, they often make a conjunction fallacy. That is, they rate the conjunction of two events as being more likely, or more plausible, than only one of the constituent events. They presented the following fabricated scenarios to 115 undergraduates at Stanford University and the University of British Columbia: A health survey was conducted in a representative sample of adult males in British Columbia of all ages and occupations. Mr. F. was included in the sample. He was selected by chance from a list of participants. Which of the following statements is more probable? (A) Mr. F. has had one or more heart attacks. (B) Mr. F. has had one or more heart attacks and he is over 55 years old. This seemingly transparent problem elicited a substantial proportion (58% selected option B) of conjunction errors among statistically naive respondents (cite 2). WE ARE PRONE TO BELIEVE VIVID STORIES. This example, and countless like it, reveal that we are all subject to the conjunction fallacy, where we regularly violate the laws of probability due to a vivid story. This error in decision-making happens when people judge that a conjunction of two possible events is more likely than one or both of the conjuncts. Innate human reasoning infers that the addition of more details increases the probability of two events occurring simultaneously. (It is also an explanation for why liars tend to add additional or even excessive detail to a given lie in order to predispose the recipient to accepting the lie as truth.) However, the more detailed outcome is just that, more detailed. It is not more plausible or more likely. In fact, the probability of the two events occurring together (in conjunction) is always less than or equal to the probability of either one occurring alone. In other words, a conjunction cannot be more probable than one of its constituents. CONJUNCTION FALLACY DURING THE PANDEMIC. Which of these statements might you have deemed to be most probable on March 25, 2020? (A) The governor has ordered people to stay home. (B) The governor has ordered people to stay home, and state highways are closed. Previous studies of conjunction statements imply that the majority of people presented with these statements would select B. Fortunately, conjunction bias collapses in on itself when too many conditions are stated. Most people are able to identify the mental trickery of a statement with a dozen conjunctions. It no longer makes sense from a face validity standpoint. CITATIONS: (1) Tversky, Amos and Daniel Kahneman. “Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment.” Psychological Review, 90 (1983): 293–315. (2) Tversky and Kahneman, Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning, 293–315. FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. This podcast and blog post represent the opinions of David P. Perrodin and his guests to the show. The content here is for informational purposes only. Please consult with your safety professional regarding the unique needs of yourself or your organization.This is episode 172 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 03-08-2022. GET DOC’S BOOKS. Purchase the preeminent book of scholarship for an uncertain epoch from your favorite bookstore or online retailer and recommend it as a purchase for your local library! The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times (2022) by David P. Perrodin.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Tuesday Mar 01, 2022
Tuesday Mar 01, 2022
Guest William Wesley Lee Jarvis returns to the show to discuss "Normal Box Theory" and how it applies to how people, and societies, in identifying the illusion of priorities. What is "thinking in averages?" Why is perception of normality everything? What are counter-processes and fixes? How do we analyze processes of culture relative to box theory? What are the range of consequences of "the law" interfering with "individual will?" NORMAL BOX THEORY. Imagine a typical cardboard box. Now imagine that everything inside of the box is what humanity considers normal and safe. Rather than thinking of a sliding scale of good or bad, the “normal box” plainly communicates what is good and safe as well as what is bad and evil. What’s inside of the box is determined by some sort of authority or by majority. The contents of the box are constantly changing - perhaps subtle adjustments, or, as in times of great uncertainty, there might be a substantial change to what is deemed worthy of the box. PROBLEM WITH BOX THEORY. The box is finite. When something is added, something must be removed. Lee suggests that the staunch binary status of box-or-no-box should allow for people to “think in averages” where there are no normal or abnormal or limitations to the box. In Lee’s nuanced interpretation, “you just let people be, treating those that harm others as problems once they make problems.” PERCEPTION OF NORMALITY IS EVERYTHING. Lee explains that “people dislike what they think is “different” and go out of their way to be a busy-body to force their perception of normality on others. This is most likely due to simple mental survival mechanisms to thin the herd, it enhances the “bullying nanny” in everyone to report people not wearing masks in their homes, For example, real-live 24/7 thought police and other such nonsense. It can turn adults into kindergartners, because people lose a sense of themselves and their limits. This also enhances culture wars and group conflict, which is very profitable for most of the modern world.” GOVERNMENT COMPETENCY AND THE SOCIAL CONTRACT. It was Thomas Hobbes’ book Leviathan, written in 1651, that described the delicate balance between just-enough government and individuals’ free will. The book’s tenets are clearly evident today as governments have extracted concessions from their citizens for the sake of safety. The most controversial permanent program under the Patriot Act is the "National Security Letters" program, which lets the government demand communications records from telecom companies without even going through the surveillance court for approval first. PEOPLE DON’T QUESTION THE RULES. Lee notes that, “Not only are bad rules made without due diligence, but they are also embraced and cherished by much of the population. It only makes the “Wealth equals Power equals Corruption” dynamic worse as people profit from the conflagration of incompetence which leads to more waste and corruption. In other words, people want to be governed, the government grows, and it becomes too large and cumbersome to be effective. The “box” is stuffed with tangled rules. CHICKEN AND EGG. It’s a bit of a chicken and an egg problem, to counter this you need sane and reasonable people in governance, to make laws devoid of proactive discrimination, to focus people on flowing with individual will, to not interfere with the will of another unless another is harming them, and if the situation becomes where one wishes to be harmed by another in some way, then that person in the dominating interpersonal position is responsible for the actions and care of the submissive person, to ensure responsibility is metered out fairly to limit abuse from drugs or any contract or job, to ensure people are innocent until proven guilty, which means if good capable people are in governance then incompetence and corruption would be mitigated. And yes jobs and contracts have their own rules and balanced-out responsibilities. If you handwave away people’s basic responsibilities to each other, to do no harm to each other, to ensure a stable environment, then you get what we have now, a legal system that allows any law to be “for your protection” to be enacted and then enforced with punitive measures and opportunities for others to report “non-compliers” because the system is desperate for money to maintain the system.” FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. This podcast and blog post represent the opinions of David P. Perrodin and his guests to the show. The content here is for informational purposes only. Please consult with your safety professional regarding the unique needs of yourself or your organization.This is episode 171 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 03-01-2022.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Tuesday Feb 22, 2022
Tuesday Feb 22, 2022
Guest Josh the Locksmith has been helping people get into their cars and homes for the past decade. He informally learned the craft on the side and then became a business owner and a successful locksmith. Working from Minneapolis-St. Paul metro, it’s not uncommon for a service call to result in a 200 mile round trip. This is an in-demand field. Josh educates us about working as a locksmith, memorable calls, and advice on home and property security. WHAT IS A LOCKSMITH. A locksmith is someone who works with locks on doors, windows, cars, safes, etc. Locksmiths install, repair, and adjust locks in everything from cars to office buildings, and they also offer services to people who are locked out or individuals who want to consult with someone about their security systems. ARE LOCKSMITHS LICENSED. Doc assumed that locksmiths were licensed in each state and perhaps were members of a national association. However, Josh shared that in Minnesota, locksmiths aren’t required to be licensed. Upon further inquiry, Doc learned that most states don’t require locksmiths to be licensed or registered with a government agency. So, how do you know that a locksmith is legit? SECURITY SCAMS - WHAT TO LOOK FOR. Josh noted that unsavory locksmith companies are a problem across the country and tend to pop-up for a short time and then vanish. When someone is searching the Internet for a locksmith, that person is probably stressed and will pursue the first results - these are sometimes the scammers. They offer a low rate service call, perhaps $15, and then once on scene, exaggerate the problem and technical effort required to resolve the matter. They might drill out your lock and stick you with a several hundred dollar bill. To avoid scams, Josh recommends that during the initial phone call to ask for a total cost as most locksmiths will provide that. A typical car or house unlock should be in the $75 ballpark. WHAT ARE SOME THINGS YOU CAN TRY ON YOUR OWN? For your own property, Josh suggests people keep a long reach grabber and air wedge in their garage. Such vehicle entry kits are available on Amazon for $50. While getting into your car with the tools from a kit might be relatively easy, it can cost several hundred dollars to have a new vehicle key manufactured by a locksmith due to the chips and electronic fobs. But, Josh notes, modern vehicles are much more difficult to steal due to the complexity of the keys. SECURITY 101. Josh advocates for every residence to have a deadbolt on exterior doors. In addition, the plate should be screwed into the support frame (not trim) of the door. This is often accomplished by using 3 inch screws. Another tip is to bathe your house and property in motion-sensing lights and even sirens. As for windows, Josh shared that 75% of forced entries are through doors and not windows. For some reason, criminals don’t want to break glass. Some final security advice is to not draw attention to your property with fancy decor or leaving valuable items in plain view. BE A KAREN. Josh notes that people seldom ask him for identity and as long as he looks the role of a locksmith, he largely has access, without question, to locations. But, if something seems off, he suggests that you ask questions, “Excuse me, what are you doing?” He feels some sketchy behavior would be curtailed by people simply asking questions. Doc noted a popular short YouTube video of a man carrying a ladder as a way to make it appear that he has the authority to enter various locations - and he was granted access most of the time - simply because he “looks the part” and moves with authority. BAD LOCKSMITH CALLS. One of the most prevalent situations Josh encounters is when people feel he has some sort of legal or police authority. This can be tricky when arriving to change locks due to domestic disputes. He also conducted a welfare check in which the occupant of the residence was dead. In addition, he opened a vehicle that had two bodies inside of it. Some of his calls resulted in generous tips - although, Josh notes, that’s not as common today. His business was unchanged during the pandemic. People weren’t asking him to engage in special disinfecting processes and he was unscathed by the essential - nonessential decrees. CAMERAS AND DIGITAL LOCKS. Josh feels there is some deterrence value in surveillance cameras, but it’s not a part of his business. And, new keypad and electronic systems can be difficult or impossible to unlock without drilling out the lock. FINAL TIP. Take a photo of the 5 digits punched into the top of your house key and keep it in a secure file on your phone. A locksmith can make a replacement key based upon those numbers. FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. This is episode 170 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 02-22-2022.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com