Episodes
Tuesday Mar 29, 2022
Tuesday Mar 29, 2022
Remember fiddling around until the final hour to hunker down and complete an assignment for school or a project for work - even though you knew of the deadline for weeks? There you were, confident you could serviceably complete the task and submit it in a nick of time. WHAT IS PARKINSON’S LAW? Parkinson’s Law is the adage that work will expand to fill the time allotted for its completion. The term was first coined by Cyril Northcote Parkinson in a humorous essay he wrote for “The Economist” in 1955. If someone has 5 hours to rake leaves from a yard - and apprises that task of clearing the small yard might take, at most, 2 hours, the tendency - per Parkinson’s Law, is for the person to take the full 5 hours to rake the leaves. They might rake at a slower pace, take frequent breaks, walk around to assess their progress, adjust their gloves, hat and jacket, and so on. NEW DEFINITION OF PARKINSON’S LAW. In his book The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times, Doc postulates a second interpretation of Parkinson’s Law. In this take, Parkinson’s Law represents the ingrained need for humans to have a distinct ritualistic start and end routine to their work days. He wrote about this in his book, centering on a business owner in Chicago who found people knocking on his door (a closed non-essential virtual reality gaming business), to inquire about renting a table for a few hours - so they could unfold their laptops and “got to work.” BREAKING PARKINSON’S LAW IN CHICAGO. The following is an excerpt (pages 75-76) from the book The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times by David P. Perrodin. “Prior to 2020, Aaron Sawyer’s Redline VR, a virtual reality club and bar in the Ravenswood neighborhood of Chicago, was doing great business. His mega-computers, 3D game configurations, and 360-degree immersive goggles and haptic wearables were something that people could not get at home. He offered the best zombie-battling experience in the city. So much so that Sawyer considered opening a second location (1). Then the pandemic hit. Chicago city government started deciding which businesses were “essential,” and thus allowed to operate, and which were not. Redline VR was not deemed “essential.” Under Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s plan, Redline VR was allowed to reopen in phase four (2) at 25 percent capacity. There was no phase five. There was no revenue coming into the business. So Sawyer pivoted. Again and again (3) Parkinson’s Law states that “work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion (4).” Linda Stone, the consultant who has studied attention behavior, found that during the pandemic, people were checking work emails “at all hours of the night,” as their homes became their workplace (5). At the outset of the pandemic, many people left their office on a Friday, began working remotely the following Monday, and did not return to their offices. Many still have no return date in sight, and a significant number of positions have become permanently remote. Getting out of the home, and into an office setting, became an attractive option for some people. At home, the roles of spouse and mother and caregiver all intersect with the workday. Work now fills the physical space once reserved for family and relaxation. The mind is not always able to differentiate between the two.” REMOTE WORKERS WANTED A PLACE TO GO TO WORK. In May and June 2020, Aaron Sawyer observed an uptick in people asking if they could rent his VR stations, which were similar to work cubicles, for a few hours or for a day. “Redline VR rebranded to offer rented office space, at just fifteen dollars for the day. Curtains and separators were put up so people could keep their social distance and have a work space of their own, away from home and family.” CITATIONS. (1) Aaron Sawyer, interview with the author, August 14, 2020; (2) City of Chicago. “Reopening Chicago.” City of Chicago. 2020. https://www.chicago .gov /city /en /sites /COVID -19 /home /reopening -chicago .html; (3) Sawyer, interview with the author; (4) Parkinson, Cyril Northcote. Parkinson’s Law [And Other Studies in Administration] (Cambridge, MA: The Riverside Press, 1957), 3. http://sas2 .elte .hu /tg /ptorv /Parkinson -s-Law.pdf; (5) Linda Stone, personal communication with the author, August 14, 2020. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. This podcast and blog post represent the opinions of David P. Perrodin and his guests to the show. The content here is for informational purposes only. Please consult with your safety professional regarding the unique needs of yourself or your organization.This is episode 175 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 03-29-2022. Order Doc’s new book today and suggest it as a purchase for your local library! The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Tuesday Mar 22, 2022
Tuesday Mar 22, 2022
What are the differences between crisis and chaos? Is a sudden bifurcation better than a gradual bifurcation? How might a "strange attractor" contribute to the sometimes long duration, and difficult-to-recognize, patterns in chaos? Doc will discuss these questions and read an excerpt pertaining to them from his book 'The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times.' WHAT IS CRISIS? The following excerpts are from pages 139-140 of the book The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. “Crisis implies a decisive point in a dangerous situation with anticipation of an abrupt change to the condition, for better or for worse. [A] crisis is often of short duration and will have an identifiable turning point(s). It tends to scale in a predictable manner. People believe their own actions might resolve a crisis. This is a key distinction between crisis and chaos. While people believe that they can negotiate to resolve a crisis, the mindset when faced with chaos is to survive, or “wait-out” the condition. HARD OR SOFT BIFURCATIONS. A crisis may be characterized by a bifurcation, which is a parameter-dependent change in dynamical behavior. A useful distinction exists between hard (abrupt) and soft (gradual) bifurcations. Hard bifurcation: the ice on a lake slowly warms (temperature is the bifurcation parameter) and suddenly breaks, dropping you into the cold lake. Soft bifurcation: an ice cube (temperature is again the bifurcation parameter) once at a temperature greater than or equal to 32 degrees slowly melts into a glass of Scotch. A soft bifurcation is clearly preferable, particularly because its impacts are dispersed over time. STRANGE ATTRACTORS (Has Nothing To Do With Gravity). As mathematically defined, a crisis occurs with the appearance of a strange attractor. The word “attractor” has nothing to do with gravitation. As in dynamic systems, attractors provide a way to describe the asymptotic behavior of typical orbits. Operationally, this means that there is a dramatic change in the dynamical behavior of the system. The present disconnects from the past and the past behavior has little or no predictive value as the system navigates its way through a profoundly altered landscape. An undetected, racing comet with a 20,000 year orbit could be a strange attractor that alters life on earth. HYPERINFLATION AS A STRANGE ATTRACTOR. In a fiat money economy, sudden-onset hyperinflation might be characterized as a strange attractor resulting in extraordinary behaviors in the country’s monetary system. For example, during the 1923 hyperinflation crisis of the Weimar Republic, “workers were often paid twice per day because prices rose so fast their wages were virtually worthless by lunchtime (1).” In addition, “[f]armers refused to take any form of paper money for their crops. The harvest of 1923 sat in farmers’ warehouses while supermarkets in the cities were empty. Starvation and civil unrest loomed (2).” WHAT IS CHAOS? “Chaos is a state of disorder that is amorphous and without clear turning points. Chaos quickly or gradually settles into outcome basins or creates a new mean. Chaos describes a system that will develop in unpredictable ways and will not scale linearly. It exists on a continuum with degrees of absorption by systems. A state of chaos, due to a lack of, or impossibility of, a scripted response will usually, if not inevitably, spread. Chaos affects the global consciousness, even if only temporarily. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami near Japan was a chaos event that killed 15,899 people and caused the Fukushima nuclear energy plant disaster. CITATIONS: (1) BBC. “Bitesize The Weimar Republic 1918-1929: The Hyperinflation Crisis, 1923.” https://www .bbc .co .uk /bitesize /guides /z9y64j6 /revision /5.; (2) Forbes. “In Hyperinflation’s Aftermath, How Germany Went Back to Gold.” Forbes .co m. June 9, 2011. https://www .forbes .com /2011 /06 /09 /germany -gold -standard.html ?sh =330426c35934. FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. This podcast and blog post represent the opinions of David P. Perrodin and his guests to the show. The content here is for informational purposes only. Please consult with your safety professional regarding the unique needs of yourself or your organization.This is episode 174 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 03-08-2022. GET the book VELOCITY OF INFORMATION. Purchase the preeminent book of scholarship for an uncertain epoch from your favorite bookstore or online retailer and recommend it as a purchase for your local library! The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times (2022) by David P. Perrodin.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Tuesday Mar 15, 2022
Tuesday Mar 15, 2022
What is comorbid chaos, how is it different from other types of chaos, and what are its consequences for societies and individuals? Doc explains the markers of uncertain times and reads an excerpt from his book, The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. COMORBID CHAOS. (Pages 144-45) “This fourth state of chaos includes qualities of Extended and International chaos events with the addition of one or more secondary, population-level chaos events that are intermediate and regional or extended and international. The secondary event happens concurrently with some or the entire primary event. In addition, chaos at this level oscillates in intensity. For example, there may be civil unrest affected by weather patterns (e.g., protests taper off on rainy days). Populations exhibit a lack of trust in government and authority. There is a corresponding loss of credibility by those in authority due to changing narratives.” EXAMPLES OF COMORBID CHAOS. Examples of comorbid chaos include The Great Depression from 1929 to 1939 confounded by the 1931–1939 Great Plains Dust Bowl and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in conjunction with racial justice protests. THE GREAT DEPRESSION. The Great Depression was the worst economic downturn in the history of the industrialized world, lasting from 1929 to 1939. In 1932, many politicians, businessmen, and journalists started to contemplate the possibility of massive revolution in the United States. In fact, thousands of the most desperate unemployed workers began raiding food stores (1). By 1933, when the Great Depression reached its lowest point, some fifteen million Americans were unemployed and nearly half the country’s banks had failed (2). Economic stability gradually returned in 1939 due, in part, to government New Deal projects that reformed financial systems and put people back to work. Many people who lived through the era distrusted banks and would no longer buy goods using credit. THE DUST BOWL. But before the economic improvement, the Dust Bowl intensified the crushing economic impacts of the Great Depression. In 1931, severe drought hit the Midwestern and Southern Plains of the United States. As crops died, crumbling topsoil from over-plowed and over-grazed land led to powerful dust storms that pummeled the region (3). “Residents crawled to safety in the dust (summer) storms and ‘snust’ (winter) storms. Many towns were abandoned (4)” Hundreds of people succumbed to what doctors at the time called “dust pneumonia,” a respiratory illness caused by tiny inorganic particles in the windblown dust (5). Famine gripped the region as it was impossible to sustain livestock. “Cattle went blind and suffocated. When farmers cut them open, they found stomachs stuffed with fine sand (6).” RECENT EXAMPLES OF COMORBID CHAOS. Since March 2020, there have been two instances of comorbid chaos in the world. PANDEMIC AND SOCIAL JUSTICE PROTESTS. The epoch of March 2020 through January 2022 was marked by the pandemic as the primary event with episodic anti-racism demonstrations serving as the secondary event. INFLATION AND WORLD CONFLICT. The consumer price index climbed 7% in 2021, the largest 12-month gain since June 1982, according to Labor Department data. Gasoline prices also approached $5 a gallon in many parts of the United States. Inflation, which many pundits speculate to be higher and more severe than official statistics, brought further instability to the roaring housing market and faltering supply chain. On February 24, 2022, Russian invaded Ukraine, leading to military conflict, over 2 million people fleeing Ukraine, and widespread sanctions applied to Russia. The world was brought closer to the first use of nuclear weapons since World War II. CITATIONS: (1) Marx, Jerry D. “American Social Policy in the Great Depression and World War II.” VCU Libraries Social Welfare History Project. 2011. http://socialwelfare.library .vcu .edu /eras /great -depression /american -social -policy -in -the -great -depression-and -wwii. (2) History.com Editors, Great Depression History. (3) American Experience. “Surviving the Dust Bowl. Timeline: The Dust Bowl.” PBS. n.d. https://www .pbs .org /wgbh /americanexperience /features /dust -bowl -surviving-dust -bowl/. (4) Gordon, Dan. “When Deadly Dirt Devastated the Southern Plains.” The Denver Post. May 12, 2011. https://www .denverpost .com /2011 /05 /12 /when -deadly-dirt -devastated -the -southern -plains. (5) Williford, James. “Children of the Dust. The Dirty Thirties as Witnessed by People Who Were Actually There.” Humanities 33, no. 6. National Endowment for the Humanities. November/December 2012. https://www .neh .gov /humanities /2012 /novemberdecember /feature /children -the -dust (6) Gordon, Deadly Dirt. FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. This is episode 173 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 03-15-2022.
GET DOC’S BOOKS. Purchase the preeminent book of scholarship for an uncertain epoch from your favorite bookstore or online retailer and recommend it as a purchase for your local library! The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times (2022) by David P. Perrodin.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Tuesday Mar 08, 2022
Tuesday Mar 08, 2022
The `Conjunction Fallacy' is a fallacy or error in decision making where people judge that a conjunction of two possible events is more likely than one or both of the conjuncts. Here are some examples. EXAMPLE ONE: Doc went to the store and bought tofu, eggplant, broccoli, and frozen meatless lasagna. Is it more likely that Doc is a man or a man who is a vegetarian? EXAMPLE TWO: Doc has a PhD or Doc has a PhD and reads the Wall Street Journal. EXAMPLE THREE: Aaron drove to a party in South Dakota in a Rolls Royce or Aaron drove to a party in South Dakota in a Rolls Royce as is a millionaire. In each example, the former is the correct answer. CONJUNCTION FALLACY: MR. F. HAD A HEART ATTACK. Excerpt from pages 51-52 of the book The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times (2022). In 1983, world-renowned psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman published a ground-breaking study on intuitive human cognitive bias (cite 1). They showed that when subjects are asked the likelihood of several alternatives, including single and joint events, they often make a conjunction fallacy. That is, they rate the conjunction of two events as being more likely, or more plausible, than only one of the constituent events. They presented the following fabricated scenarios to 115 undergraduates at Stanford University and the University of British Columbia: A health survey was conducted in a representative sample of adult males in British Columbia of all ages and occupations. Mr. F. was included in the sample. He was selected by chance from a list of participants. Which of the following statements is more probable? (A) Mr. F. has had one or more heart attacks. (B) Mr. F. has had one or more heart attacks and he is over 55 years old. This seemingly transparent problem elicited a substantial proportion (58% selected option B) of conjunction errors among statistically naive respondents (cite 2). WE ARE PRONE TO BELIEVE VIVID STORIES. This example, and countless like it, reveal that we are all subject to the conjunction fallacy, where we regularly violate the laws of probability due to a vivid story. This error in decision-making happens when people judge that a conjunction of two possible events is more likely than one or both of the conjuncts. Innate human reasoning infers that the addition of more details increases the probability of two events occurring simultaneously. (It is also an explanation for why liars tend to add additional or even excessive detail to a given lie in order to predispose the recipient to accepting the lie as truth.) However, the more detailed outcome is just that, more detailed. It is not more plausible or more likely. In fact, the probability of the two events occurring together (in conjunction) is always less than or equal to the probability of either one occurring alone. In other words, a conjunction cannot be more probable than one of its constituents. CONJUNCTION FALLACY DURING THE PANDEMIC. Which of these statements might you have deemed to be most probable on March 25, 2020? (A) The governor has ordered people to stay home. (B) The governor has ordered people to stay home, and state highways are closed. Previous studies of conjunction statements imply that the majority of people presented with these statements would select B. Fortunately, conjunction bias collapses in on itself when too many conditions are stated. Most people are able to identify the mental trickery of a statement with a dozen conjunctions. It no longer makes sense from a face validity standpoint. CITATIONS: (1) Tversky, Amos and Daniel Kahneman. “Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment.” Psychological Review, 90 (1983): 293–315. (2) Tversky and Kahneman, Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning, 293–315. FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. This podcast and blog post represent the opinions of David P. Perrodin and his guests to the show. The content here is for informational purposes only. Please consult with your safety professional regarding the unique needs of yourself or your organization.This is episode 172 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 03-08-2022. GET DOC’S BOOKS. Purchase the preeminent book of scholarship for an uncertain epoch from your favorite bookstore or online retailer and recommend it as a purchase for your local library! The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times (2022) by David P. Perrodin.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Tuesday Feb 08, 2022
Tuesday Feb 08, 2022
WHAT IS THE BRAESS PARADOX? Braess’ Paradox states that, counterintuitively, adding a road to a road network can slow down overall traffic through it. The paradox was discovered in 1968 by German mathematician Dietrich Braess. At the root of this paradox is that every driver thinks for themselves as the lack of cooperation with other drivers means that every driver will aim to take the fastest possible route. Hence, the shortest route becomes overwhelmed and also slows down merging-in from lesser-traveled nodes, which, in turn, causes delays on those nodes. In New York, Boston, London, and Seoul, traffic congestion decreased in as little as a week after congested roadways were closed. HUMAN VS. ANT. “According to scientists who studied traffic density for humans and for ants, it was discovered that when the occupancy rate on the road exceeds 40 percent, people gradually slow down their speed and stop after a certain stage. Thus, congested traffic or traffic jams. In ants, on the other hand, we observe an opposite phenomenon. As the traffic density increases, the flow increases at the same time. When the occupancy rate on the road reaches 80 percent, the ants synchronize their tempo and continue on their path at the most optimal speed (SOURCE: Ibrahim Kovin, Oct 18, 2021. Cantorsparadise.com). It might be argued that the ants’ goal is survival of the colony and the human’s goal is to be the first person at work. So we expect people to flock to the shortest possible route, or our navigation apps pull from the same maps and data to funnel us into a bogged down shortcut. AI can sell us out, but the antecedent event can also steer our subconscious thinking. FORCED LEARNED BEHAVIOR. When people are forced to alter their routines due to an unexpected, dramatic event - such as a bridge failure, they tend to begrudgingly follow government-placed detour signs and also poke around for a new path that allows them to complete their commute. As their long-accustomed-to primary route is out of service, drivers tend to stick with their first-experienced new routes - even if they are not particularly efficient. They would rather travel a known route than attempt to find a shorter route. One would think this new patterning would be readily tossed aside if the previous route, which was shorter and faster, was restored. That’s what happens during expected closures of familiar routes. However, when the I35W bridge was re-opened in 2008, demand did not bounce back to pre-collapse levels as expected - and the addition of lanes didn’t cause the dreaded Braess’ Paradox. THREE REASONS DRIVERS DIDN’T REVERT TO FASTER PRE-COLLAPSE ROUTES. These three facts might have influenced drivers’ behavior: (1) The unexpectedness of the I-35W Bridge collapse and the mandatory route changes some commuters were forced to make created inherent resistance to return the bridge following reopening; (2) The prolonged closure was lengthy enough for the benefits of route familiarity in the disrupted network to outweigh the low travel times found on the new bridge; and (3) The tragedy itself discouraged some commuters from returning to the site (SOURCE: MN DOT Research Services. Traffic Flow and Road User Impacts of the Collapse of the I-35W Bridge over the Mississippi River. David Levinson, Principal Investigator). SUMMARY. Three take-away points. (1) Humans tend to think individually and gravitate to the shortest or fastest path, often overloading it. This has been observed with new roads as well as drive-thru lines at restaurants. The phenomenon is known as Braess’ Paradox. (2) Following an unexpected disruption, an avoidance phenomenon is observed that will typically diminish over time. (3) And, in contrast, pre-planned disruptions, even with similar magnitude, generate much smaller impacts. Bonus tip. In a crisis, think the opposite of the masses. ACCORDING TO THE JOKER: “I just did what I do best. I took your little plan and I turned it on itself. Look what I did to this city with a few drums of gas and a couple of bullets. Hmmm? You know... You know what I've noticed? Nobody panics when things go "according to plan." Even if the plan is horrifying! If, tomorrow, I tell the press that, like, a gang banger will get shot, or a truckload of soldiers will be blown up, nobody panics, because it's all "part of the plan". But when I say that one little old mayor will die, well then everyone loses their minds. Introduce a little anarchy. Upset the established order, and everything becomes chaos. I'm an agent of chaos. Oh, and you know the thing about chaos? It's fair!” (quotation from Heath Ledger as The Joker in Christopher Nolan movie, The Dark Knight). FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. This is episode 169 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 02-08-2022.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Tuesday Jan 11, 2022
Tuesday Jan 11, 2022
Doc was recently interviewed by a large-market news company assembling a documentary about youth violence directed at adults. Ultimately, the question of “What can be done to prevent this?” was asked. A staunch proponent of increasing funding, research, and training on threat identification and reporting, Dr. Perrodin delivered his versed spell-binder on the matter. When asked about sports, or perhaps the decline of youth sports, contributing to youth violence, Dr. Perrodin found himself conflicted with the research. YOUTH SPORTS PARTICIPATION IN AMERICA ARE DECREASING, INCREASING, or CONFUSING. Per the National Council of Youth Sports, “About 60 million children and teens from age 6 to 18 participate in organized sports each year with 73 percent involved in more than one sport.” But those numbers are complicated. From 2008 to 2018, Aspen Project Play found that the participation rate of kids between the ages of 6 and 12 dropped from 45 to 38 percent, due largely to the increasing costs, time commitments, and competitive nature of organized sports leagues. Statista reports (2019) reports that there are 50 million children in the United States between the ages of six and seventeen. DOES PARTICIPATING IN SPORTS DECREASE JUVENILE DELINQUENCY? According to a 2015 study published in the Journal of Youth and Adolescence, “Participation in sports activities is very popular among adolescents, and is frequently encouraged among youth. Many psychosocial health benefits in youth are attributed to sports participation, but to what extent this positive influence holds for juvenile delinquency is still not clear on both the theoretical and empirical level. SOURCE: doi: 10.1007/s10964-015-0389-7.” As Dr. Perrodin examined studies and meta-analysis reports, the findings largely fell into the same basin - there was not a statistical relation between youth sports participation and youth violence. The most prevalent connections were between youth physical activity and youth physical health. HOW ABOUT E-SPORTS? This is where things get interesting. When we think of youth sports, our minds are populated with images of baseball diamonds and folding-camp-chair-lined soccer fields. Though generating controversy over whether the pastime qualifies as true sport, E-Sports has exploded in popularity in recent years. In a 2019 Forbes article by Bob Cook, “At least seven state high school associations are offering esports at a varsity level, and more will add it. Even states without official varsity esports run state tournaments, and prizes can include scholarship money to one of the 115 colleges (and growing) fielding esports teams, and, in many cases, offering scholarships to gamers.” Complexity Gaming, a professional esports organization owned by Dallas Cowboys' owner and youth sports investor Jerry Jones, is building a training facility at the Cowboys' headquarters, The Star in Frisco, Texas. https://complexity.gg/ DO VIDEO GAMES MAKE YOUTH VIOLENT? No. This question is oft-asked, and the 2008 book Grand Theft Childhood by Harvard University’s Dr. Cheryl K. Olson and Dr. Lawrence Kutner is one of the most-cited works to debunk violent or graphic video games causing youth to engage in violent behavior. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YOUTH VIOLENCE RESEARCH? We are at a disruption point or possibly a convergence in what is considered a youth sport. Studies seeking to uncover relationships between participation in sports and violence must now include E-sports. What nuanced areas might be studied in E-sports? If Doc was assembling a research study, his constructs might be (1) badges and incentives; (2) social etiquette and moderating; (3) incidents of delinquent or violent behavior compared to non-sport youth; and (4) incidents of harm to self or harm to others compared to overall youth population. E-SPORTS AND INCLUSION. While traditional sports are difficult to access by youth with physical disabilities, E-Sports are more inclusive. You could have a wheelchair-using student be a captain of his school’s E-Sports team. What might be the impact of E-Sports on Title IV? FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. ENDORSEMENTS. This is episode 166 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 01-11-2022.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Wednesday Oct 13, 2021
Wednesday Oct 13, 2021
Doc peels apart the big sticky questions about K-12 school mask mandates. What’s kicked off the flurry of mask/mitigation lawsuits filed by parents? Have county health services abandoned their obligations to school districts? Are school boards spending pandemic funds on football fields? Why are doctors invited to present at school board meetings instead of environmental services experts? Learn what is happening and what should be happening is schools around America. MASK GUIDANCE. Schools are frantically seeking guidance from county health departments. While some counties have stepped up, others have stepped away and turned off the lights. Boards of Education (BOEs) then attempt to align decisions to the CDC, state recommendation, advice from legal counsel, or local doctors. MASKS IN THE REAL SCHOOL WORLD. School officials are unable to define what is an effective and acceptable mask. Hundreds of students might wear old masks, homemade masks, or fashion masks. Should schools issue masks to students and staff to ensure some baseline of quality? How are students educated about mask wearing and how are schools responding to medical exemption orders for some students with disabilities? CONTACT TRACING. We’ve all heard this concept. In practice, it’s messy for schools providing in-person instruction. What frequently happens is that a student tests positive for COVID-19 and then the district notifies parents that their child was in “close proximity” to a child that tested positive for COVID-19. The parents are advised to observe their child for symptoms, but typically aren’t required to have the student self-quarantine or receive a rapid test. How does a parent distinguish symptoms of colds, seasonal flu, allergies, COVID-19, and fatigue? ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES. The Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief (ESSER) Fund (March, 2021) pumped cash into schools in the form of block grants that allowed schools to spend the dollars to increase student achievement or mitigate pandemic concerns. Some districts spent their dollars on staffing and cleaning. Others installed artificial turf athletic fields, tracks, and new weight rooms. There was much, and unchecked, interpretation of what measures promoted student health during a pandemic. Doc also notes that few schools spend the funds on HVAC upgrades due to the technical barriers of upgrading existing systems. For example, filters that remove viruses decrease air flow through the system and strain circulation motors. Furthermore, equipment and installers are in short supply as supply chains fell apart in 2021. SHOULD SCHOOLS TEST FOR COVID-19 ON SURFACES AND IN THE AIR? Yes. Schools have utilized professional environmental services to test for mold or MRSA, remove impacted areas, and help to prevent future problems. Environmental companies that offer those services are able to test surfaces and air samples for the presence of COVID-19. Doc states that professional environmental services should be informing school boards about COVID-19 management in schools. PARENTS SUE SCHOOLS - MY CHILD GOT COVID-10 AT SCHOOL. Doc notes very recent lawsuits that parents have filed against schools in his state alleging that the school “failed to implement reasonable COVID-19 mitigation measures.” How might schools respond to the lawsuits? Will parents prevail. If so, then what happens? Doc describes how foreseeable tort law might be something we begin to hear about and what that term means for BOEs. FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE & BLOG: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David Perrodin, PhD. ENDORSEMENTS. Opinions are those of the host & guests. The show seeks to bring forward productive discourse on topics relevant to personal or community safety. This is episode 154 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 10-13-2021.
- Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Book: School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com.
Sunday Jul 19, 2020
Sunday Jul 19, 2020
Retired Recon Marine Clay Martin leverages his bonafide credentials and experience to provide listeners with fact-based, authentic concepts regarding the application of survival techniques in their homes, neighborhoods, and any environment that spins into chaos. Clay shares captivating personal stories, including a time when a momentary fatigue of his situational awareness resulted in juggling a hot potato tear gas canister decoyed as a Dr. Pepper bottle. Read the full blog post for episode #143 at safetyphd.com. ABOUT CLAY MARTIN. Clay Martin is a former USMC Infantryman, Reconnaissance Marine, and Scout Sniper. He crossed deck to the US Army and spent the rest of his career in Special Forces, because he is a glutton for punishment. Medically retired at 15 years of service, he wandered the Earth like Caine from Kung Fu, before remembering he could type and starting a career as a gun review monkey and novelist. He is the author of Last Son of the War God and the Sword of the Caliphate, fictional works. CONCRETE JUNGLE - AMAZON BEST SELLER / SEVERAL REVIEWS. Written in 2019 and released in June 2020, Concrete Jungle: A Green Berets guide to Urban Survival, is unfortunately a non-fiction book appropriate to the times we live in. As cultural war clouds gather, cities are becoming the flashpoint. In this volume, retired Special Forces soldier Clay Martin teaches you how to survive it. A multi tour GWOT veteran and Special Forces Advanced Urban Combat instructor, as well as long time prepper and competitive shooter, Clay brings a different type of skill set to the party. From laying in supplies to siege proofing your apartment building, this volume answers the questions other experts cannot. HOUSE BURNED DOWN, MEDICAL EVENT, AND THEN COVID19. Clay and his family were out of town when their house caught fire and was destroyed at the end of January. A week later, Clay was hospitalized with an unexpected blog clot in his right arm that extended into his lungs, and by the time he was released in February, the COVID19 pandemic became something that couldn’t be ignored by Americans - so his family prepared for the pandemic, without many of their possessions, while living in a rental house - and as Clay was a medically-compromised person due to the recent hospitalization. Conditioned for chaotic times, Clay rolled with the situation and stated, “We have water bottles and a backpack, we’ll be fine”, but also found his young children asking, “where are our toys, why are we living in BRBs, …?” SITUATION AWARENESS - YOU CAN LEARN IT. Clay wrote that the American civilian population has been largely insulated and comfortable since 1941. People in America wake up expecting and experiencing a predictable, safe day. He believes that most people are deficient in situational awareness skills unless they’ve grown up in a volatile area, such as a big city - in which situational awareness and survival skills are an evolved process. SNIPER SCHOOL. Clay shared that sniper school focused on identifying nuanced things through binoculars or being able to recall what you passed while walking to lunch. The more you observe your environment, the more you automatically attend to what’s happening around you and also apply a filter of, “What can hurt me right now?” David built on this with an example of taking his family to a baseball game last summer. He taught his daughters to watch the position of the infielders and outfielders in order to predict what might happen next. HOW CLAY BUILT HIS PROXY NETWORK. Clay notes that different people have different abilities to handle things - so learn people’s strengths and play to those strengths when building your information network. If someone’s a spreadsheet fanatic, give him an assignment of aggregating data from members in the field. Clay describes how he built his information network similar to a phone tree - and have the primary people be the ones that live close to you. Remember that your connections in other parts of the country are likely to have their own regional networks. PREDICTORS OF THINGS TO COME. Clay identified alarming patterns of behavior last year including some states and cities choosing to selectively enforce the law and dropping charges - and a trend toward a more lawless society. Clay feels we might be 6-8 months out from hyperinflation and an economic collapse. FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE & BLOG: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David Perrodin, PhD. ENDORSEMENTS. Opinions are those of the host & guests. The show seeks to bring forward productive discourse on topics relevant to personal or community safety. This is episode 143 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 7-18-2020.
- Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Book: School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com.
- Clay Martin's website: http://off-the-reservation.com/
Tuesday Jul 07, 2020
Tuesday Jul 07, 2020
Joe Dolio is a USMC Veteran with over 20 years in corporate security investigations as a Certified Fraud Examiner and Certified Forensic Interviewer. He is a KyoSaNim (Instructor) and Second Degree Black Belt in Tang Soo Do. Joe is adept in situational awareness and successfully negotiating exits from chaotic environments. He curates the website tactical-wisdom.com which is a repository for his posts about personal safety and grounded wisdom. Read the full blog post for episode #142 at safetyphd.com. SITUATIONAL AWARENESS. Joe distinguishes between intelligence and information. People tend to source information from rumors or from the media instead of getting out and verifying things for themselves. “My cousin’s friend knows a guy…” is information - it is NOT intelligence. What did you do to verify that information? Joe heard that Detroit area hospitals were crowded with COVID19 patients - TV images suggested jammed parking lots and M*A*S*H-like field hospitals popping up across the city. Questioning this information, he drove to the hospitals and found that the parking lots weren’t overflowing as depicted by the media or embellished in personal stories. Grocery stores were also among the places visited by Joe at the onset of the coronavirus as he observed human behavior - how people were “feeling” about the pandemic - calm, nervous, totally panicked! He found that people’s behaviors weren’t necessarily matched to what was authentically happening with the supply chain. MUSTERING YOUR MEMBER CHECK NETWORK - AN APP TO VERIFY INFO. Face validity (face validity is a simple test of asking if what I’m observing makes sense - think of a thermometer that reports 80 degrees during a snowstorm - that’s an error in face validity) is amplified by building a carefully vetted, trained, and coached group of like-minded people who are able to authentically observe and report what they experience in their environments. Joe noted that members of his network used the Solocator app which allowed them to take photos that were automatically tagged with time stamps and GPS coordinates. His network debriefed daily and used Google documents to aggregate data and identify trends. OPTIONS IF TRAPPED IN CAR DURING PROTEST. It’s on everyone’s mind...what if I’m in my car and inadvertently get caught in a protest? It might be an inconvenience - or it might escalate into a dangerous situation. First, Joe advises to check for scheduled protests if traveling and to steer clear of those areas. If you are in your vehicle and caught within a group of protesters, he reminds people of their options to: (1) keep moving (not to collide with people); (2) reverse course - even if it means driving the wrong way or skipping the median; or, in extreme situations, (3) abandon your vehicle if the protests have become violent and you judge your life is in peril and that you have time to get to a safer location. HOW TO GO STEALTH. Joe attended [peaceful] protests as an observer and noted the security teams deployed by protest groups (not the government) to monitor vehicles and people that appeared to be watching the protesters instead of participating in the protest. Joe dressed in jeans, a hoodie, and a baseball cap and kept a change of clothes in his backpack. He shared this information to help people learn how to blend in and get away from impromptu crowds - and noted protests were happening in grocery store parking lots across his city. Have the ability to quickly change your profile. SHOULD I WEAR A BODY CAM? Joe wears a body cam for his professional work and notes that a decent body cam with video and audio costs less than $100. His recommendation is Mini Gadgets Camstick1080p which clips into a pocket. He believes that gun owners should absolutely have a body cam to provide contextual evidence if they decide to use deadly force. Additionally, automotive dash cams are affordable and invaluable during a disputed accident. Check your state’s laws regarding one or two party consent to record. WHAT TO HAVE IN YOUR FIRST AID - DUCT TAPE. Joe insists that duct tape is a staple of every first aid kit. For more on this topic, read his blog post at https://tactical-wisdom.com/2020/07/07/first-aid-skills/ LEARN BASIC SELF DEFENSE. Check out your local dojo for martial arts courses. Get a gym membership and learn to spar and box. Could you defend yourself if someone attempted to tackle you? FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE & BLOG: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David Perrodin, PhD. ENDORSEMENTS. Opinions are those of the host & guests. The show seeks to bring forward productive discourse on topics relevant to personal or community safety. This is episode 142 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 7-6-2020.
- Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Book: School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Joe Dolio's website: https://tactical-wisdom.com/
Monday Jun 29, 2020
Monday Jun 29, 2020
Philipp Heinrich is an entrepreneur, security instructor, and weapons trainer in Germany. He’s an oracle of face validity and recognizes both gradual and rapid nuances in society. Are Germans smashing into Finite Voltage? How does it manifest? Is anyone spared? Read the full blog post for episode #141 at safetyphd.com. ABOUT PHILIPP HEINRICH. Philipp started his career in security working as a night watchman while attending university. After working in human relations and studying business psychology, he decided to become an entrepreneur at the age of 24 and sold his business 3 years later. Returning to his passion of teaching security and weapons training, he is now working as a security instructor and business consultant. FACE VALIDITY IN GERMANY - SCARCITY MINDSET OR LUXURY BINGE? Phil noted that things continue to rapidly change in Germany. He shared that the government put forth several economic stimulus initiatives for citizens including tuition and job training. As grocery stores presented with partially-filled shelves and limited hours, the cause was less a direct response to the virus pandemic and more attributable, per Phil, to people choosing not to work and accept government payments. He shared that stores are, surprisingly, flush with comfort items - trinkets, toys, etc. As a lifelong resident of Germany, Phil pointed out that these items are not ordinarily found on store shelves this time of year. CROWD IN THEORY. Commonly associated with economics, “Crowd In” theory also has a psychological interpretation described as people feeling they need to surround themselves with “comfort” items during a time of crisis - when they think they might be bound to their home for a long period of time. This is an intriguing concept and much different from “Scarcity” theory which fueled runs on toilet paper and pasta. Phil stated that video game systems had been sold out for three months and that it was impossible to even locate refurbished laptops. Doc and Phil unpacked Crowd In theory and recognized that observing it denotes that people believe a chaos event will be of a long duration. After purging the soup aisle, shoppers ramble their carts to the interior paint department. Phil perceives that elderly people in Germany remember World War II and how having physical possessions was deemed more important than money. MEASURING FINITE VOLTAGE. When the news of the pandemic stay-at-home orders were delivered at Phil’s workplace, he observed some co-workers immediately panic and embellish worst-case scenarios as if they had already come to fruition. He was shocked that some of the people that had been based in STEM and empirical processes were suddenly occupied with conspiracy theories and sought confirmation bias for their irrational, paranoid mindset. Phil judged that older Germans have become both anxious and reserved as they enter a fourth month of pandemic lockdowns or civil unrest curfews. The working class is choosing to limit participation in the workforce although the government is offering generous paid training and paid positions. Phil shared that high unemployment figures are, in part, due to people unwilling to accept training or jobs of manual labor, business, security, IT, etc. Finite Voltage becomes difficult to measure when people exist in an artificial environment that offers cash not to work. Doc and Phil speculate how this context might separate people from agency and purpose. Existing, but for what reason other than to exist? WHAT PREPARED PHIL FOR 2020? Phil is trained in a civilian defense role that is similar to how the National Guard in America would deploy after a natural disaster. He’s served in medical support and in technical support to the fire department. Familiar with safety systems, Phil is cognizant of safety bravado and leaders choosing to fatigue protocols. He tells a story of participating in a routine civil defense drill in late February that involved spraying water from fire hoses. Phil spoke up and suggested that participants wear face masks to prevent inhalation of dirt or other particulate matter within the water aerosol (this was prior to COVID19 fears). He was aware of Legionnaires disease - which is caused as bacteria spreads through mist. And, water pumped from standing ponds or stagnant reserves isn’t anything you would drink without boiling. Sadly, leaders and peers shrugged off his recommendations. Phil noted that this “it won’t happen to me” response was in line with society’s overall tendency to downplay risks. FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE & BLOG: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David Perrodin, PhD. ENDORSEMENTS. Opinions are those of the host & guests. The show seeks to bring forward productive discourse on topics relevant to personal or community safety. This is episode 141 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 6-29-2020.
- Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Book: School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com