Episodes
Tuesday Mar 08, 2022
Tuesday Mar 08, 2022
The `Conjunction Fallacy' is a fallacy or error in decision making where people judge that a conjunction of two possible events is more likely than one or both of the conjuncts. Here are some examples. EXAMPLE ONE: Doc went to the store and bought tofu, eggplant, broccoli, and frozen meatless lasagna. Is it more likely that Doc is a man or a man who is a vegetarian? EXAMPLE TWO: Doc has a PhD or Doc has a PhD and reads the Wall Street Journal. EXAMPLE THREE: Aaron drove to a party in South Dakota in a Rolls Royce or Aaron drove to a party in South Dakota in a Rolls Royce as is a millionaire. In each example, the former is the correct answer. CONJUNCTION FALLACY: MR. F. HAD A HEART ATTACK. Excerpt from pages 51-52 of the book The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times (2022). In 1983, world-renowned psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman published a ground-breaking study on intuitive human cognitive bias (cite 1). They showed that when subjects are asked the likelihood of several alternatives, including single and joint events, they often make a conjunction fallacy. That is, they rate the conjunction of two events as being more likely, or more plausible, than only one of the constituent events. They presented the following fabricated scenarios to 115 undergraduates at Stanford University and the University of British Columbia: A health survey was conducted in a representative sample of adult males in British Columbia of all ages and occupations. Mr. F. was included in the sample. He was selected by chance from a list of participants. Which of the following statements is more probable? (A) Mr. F. has had one or more heart attacks. (B) Mr. F. has had one or more heart attacks and he is over 55 years old. This seemingly transparent problem elicited a substantial proportion (58% selected option B) of conjunction errors among statistically naive respondents (cite 2). WE ARE PRONE TO BELIEVE VIVID STORIES. This example, and countless like it, reveal that we are all subject to the conjunction fallacy, where we regularly violate the laws of probability due to a vivid story. This error in decision-making happens when people judge that a conjunction of two possible events is more likely than one or both of the conjuncts. Innate human reasoning infers that the addition of more details increases the probability of two events occurring simultaneously. (It is also an explanation for why liars tend to add additional or even excessive detail to a given lie in order to predispose the recipient to accepting the lie as truth.) However, the more detailed outcome is just that, more detailed. It is not more plausible or more likely. In fact, the probability of the two events occurring together (in conjunction) is always less than or equal to the probability of either one occurring alone. In other words, a conjunction cannot be more probable than one of its constituents. CONJUNCTION FALLACY DURING THE PANDEMIC. Which of these statements might you have deemed to be most probable on March 25, 2020? (A) The governor has ordered people to stay home. (B) The governor has ordered people to stay home, and state highways are closed. Previous studies of conjunction statements imply that the majority of people presented with these statements would select B. Fortunately, conjunction bias collapses in on itself when too many conditions are stated. Most people are able to identify the mental trickery of a statement with a dozen conjunctions. It no longer makes sense from a face validity standpoint. CITATIONS: (1) Tversky, Amos and Daniel Kahneman. “Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment.” Psychological Review, 90 (1983): 293–315. (2) Tversky and Kahneman, Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning, 293–315. FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. This podcast and blog post represent the opinions of David P. Perrodin and his guests to the show. The content here is for informational purposes only. Please consult with your safety professional regarding the unique needs of yourself or your organization.This is episode 172 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 03-08-2022. GET DOC’S BOOKS. Purchase the preeminent book of scholarship for an uncertain epoch from your favorite bookstore or online retailer and recommend it as a purchase for your local library! The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times (2022) by David P. Perrodin.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Tuesday Mar 01, 2022
Tuesday Mar 01, 2022
Guest William Wesley Lee Jarvis returns to the show to discuss "Normal Box Theory" and how it applies to how people, and societies, in identifying the illusion of priorities. What is "thinking in averages?" Why is perception of normality everything? What are counter-processes and fixes? How do we analyze processes of culture relative to box theory? What are the range of consequences of "the law" interfering with "individual will?" NORMAL BOX THEORY. Imagine a typical cardboard box. Now imagine that everything inside of the box is what humanity considers normal and safe. Rather than thinking of a sliding scale of good or bad, the “normal box” plainly communicates what is good and safe as well as what is bad and evil. What’s inside of the box is determined by some sort of authority or by majority. The contents of the box are constantly changing - perhaps subtle adjustments, or, as in times of great uncertainty, there might be a substantial change to what is deemed worthy of the box. PROBLEM WITH BOX THEORY. The box is finite. When something is added, something must be removed. Lee suggests that the staunch binary status of box-or-no-box should allow for people to “think in averages” where there are no normal or abnormal or limitations to the box. In Lee’s nuanced interpretation, “you just let people be, treating those that harm others as problems once they make problems.” PERCEPTION OF NORMALITY IS EVERYTHING. Lee explains that “people dislike what they think is “different” and go out of their way to be a busy-body to force their perception of normality on others. This is most likely due to simple mental survival mechanisms to thin the herd, it enhances the “bullying nanny” in everyone to report people not wearing masks in their homes, For example, real-live 24/7 thought police and other such nonsense. It can turn adults into kindergartners, because people lose a sense of themselves and their limits. This also enhances culture wars and group conflict, which is very profitable for most of the modern world.” GOVERNMENT COMPETENCY AND THE SOCIAL CONTRACT. It was Thomas Hobbes’ book Leviathan, written in 1651, that described the delicate balance between just-enough government and individuals’ free will. The book’s tenets are clearly evident today as governments have extracted concessions from their citizens for the sake of safety. The most controversial permanent program under the Patriot Act is the "National Security Letters" program, which lets the government demand communications records from telecom companies without even going through the surveillance court for approval first. PEOPLE DON’T QUESTION THE RULES. Lee notes that, “Not only are bad rules made without due diligence, but they are also embraced and cherished by much of the population. It only makes the “Wealth equals Power equals Corruption” dynamic worse as people profit from the conflagration of incompetence which leads to more waste and corruption. In other words, people want to be governed, the government grows, and it becomes too large and cumbersome to be effective. The “box” is stuffed with tangled rules. CHICKEN AND EGG. It’s a bit of a chicken and an egg problem, to counter this you need sane and reasonable people in governance, to make laws devoid of proactive discrimination, to focus people on flowing with individual will, to not interfere with the will of another unless another is harming them, and if the situation becomes where one wishes to be harmed by another in some way, then that person in the dominating interpersonal position is responsible for the actions and care of the submissive person, to ensure responsibility is metered out fairly to limit abuse from drugs or any contract or job, to ensure people are innocent until proven guilty, which means if good capable people are in governance then incompetence and corruption would be mitigated. And yes jobs and contracts have their own rules and balanced-out responsibilities. If you handwave away people’s basic responsibilities to each other, to do no harm to each other, to ensure a stable environment, then you get what we have now, a legal system that allows any law to be “for your protection” to be enacted and then enforced with punitive measures and opportunities for others to report “non-compliers” because the system is desperate for money to maintain the system.” FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. This podcast and blog post represent the opinions of David P. Perrodin and his guests to the show. The content here is for informational purposes only. Please consult with your safety professional regarding the unique needs of yourself or your organization.This is episode 171 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 03-01-2022.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Tuesday Feb 22, 2022
Tuesday Feb 22, 2022
Guest Josh the Locksmith has been helping people get into their cars and homes for the past decade. He informally learned the craft on the side and then became a business owner and a successful locksmith. Working from Minneapolis-St. Paul metro, it’s not uncommon for a service call to result in a 200 mile round trip. This is an in-demand field. Josh educates us about working as a locksmith, memorable calls, and advice on home and property security. WHAT IS A LOCKSMITH. A locksmith is someone who works with locks on doors, windows, cars, safes, etc. Locksmiths install, repair, and adjust locks in everything from cars to office buildings, and they also offer services to people who are locked out or individuals who want to consult with someone about their security systems. ARE LOCKSMITHS LICENSED. Doc assumed that locksmiths were licensed in each state and perhaps were members of a national association. However, Josh shared that in Minnesota, locksmiths aren’t required to be licensed. Upon further inquiry, Doc learned that most states don’t require locksmiths to be licensed or registered with a government agency. So, how do you know that a locksmith is legit? SECURITY SCAMS - WHAT TO LOOK FOR. Josh noted that unsavory locksmith companies are a problem across the country and tend to pop-up for a short time and then vanish. When someone is searching the Internet for a locksmith, that person is probably stressed and will pursue the first results - these are sometimes the scammers. They offer a low rate service call, perhaps $15, and then once on scene, exaggerate the problem and technical effort required to resolve the matter. They might drill out your lock and stick you with a several hundred dollar bill. To avoid scams, Josh recommends that during the initial phone call to ask for a total cost as most locksmiths will provide that. A typical car or house unlock should be in the $75 ballpark. WHAT ARE SOME THINGS YOU CAN TRY ON YOUR OWN? For your own property, Josh suggests people keep a long reach grabber and air wedge in their garage. Such vehicle entry kits are available on Amazon for $50. While getting into your car with the tools from a kit might be relatively easy, it can cost several hundred dollars to have a new vehicle key manufactured by a locksmith due to the chips and electronic fobs. But, Josh notes, modern vehicles are much more difficult to steal due to the complexity of the keys. SECURITY 101. Josh advocates for every residence to have a deadbolt on exterior doors. In addition, the plate should be screwed into the support frame (not trim) of the door. This is often accomplished by using 3 inch screws. Another tip is to bathe your house and property in motion-sensing lights and even sirens. As for windows, Josh shared that 75% of forced entries are through doors and not windows. For some reason, criminals don’t want to break glass. Some final security advice is to not draw attention to your property with fancy decor or leaving valuable items in plain view. BE A KAREN. Josh notes that people seldom ask him for identity and as long as he looks the role of a locksmith, he largely has access, without question, to locations. But, if something seems off, he suggests that you ask questions, “Excuse me, what are you doing?” He feels some sketchy behavior would be curtailed by people simply asking questions. Doc noted a popular short YouTube video of a man carrying a ladder as a way to make it appear that he has the authority to enter various locations - and he was granted access most of the time - simply because he “looks the part” and moves with authority. BAD LOCKSMITH CALLS. One of the most prevalent situations Josh encounters is when people feel he has some sort of legal or police authority. This can be tricky when arriving to change locks due to domestic disputes. He also conducted a welfare check in which the occupant of the residence was dead. In addition, he opened a vehicle that had two bodies inside of it. Some of his calls resulted in generous tips - although, Josh notes, that’s not as common today. His business was unchanged during the pandemic. People weren’t asking him to engage in special disinfecting processes and he was unscathed by the essential - nonessential decrees. CAMERAS AND DIGITAL LOCKS. Josh feels there is some deterrence value in surveillance cameras, but it’s not a part of his business. And, new keypad and electronic systems can be difficult or impossible to unlock without drilling out the lock. FINAL TIP. Take a photo of the 5 digits punched into the top of your house key and keep it in a secure file on your phone. A locksmith can make a replacement key based upon those numbers. FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. This is episode 170 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 02-22-2022.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Tuesday Feb 08, 2022
Tuesday Feb 08, 2022
WHAT IS THE BRAESS PARADOX? Braess’ Paradox states that, counterintuitively, adding a road to a road network can slow down overall traffic through it. The paradox was discovered in 1968 by German mathematician Dietrich Braess. At the root of this paradox is that every driver thinks for themselves as the lack of cooperation with other drivers means that every driver will aim to take the fastest possible route. Hence, the shortest route becomes overwhelmed and also slows down merging-in from lesser-traveled nodes, which, in turn, causes delays on those nodes. In New York, Boston, London, and Seoul, traffic congestion decreased in as little as a week after congested roadways were closed. HUMAN VS. ANT. “According to scientists who studied traffic density for humans and for ants, it was discovered that when the occupancy rate on the road exceeds 40 percent, people gradually slow down their speed and stop after a certain stage. Thus, congested traffic or traffic jams. In ants, on the other hand, we observe an opposite phenomenon. As the traffic density increases, the flow increases at the same time. When the occupancy rate on the road reaches 80 percent, the ants synchronize their tempo and continue on their path at the most optimal speed (SOURCE: Ibrahim Kovin, Oct 18, 2021. Cantorsparadise.com). It might be argued that the ants’ goal is survival of the colony and the human’s goal is to be the first person at work. So we expect people to flock to the shortest possible route, or our navigation apps pull from the same maps and data to funnel us into a bogged down shortcut. AI can sell us out, but the antecedent event can also steer our subconscious thinking. FORCED LEARNED BEHAVIOR. When people are forced to alter their routines due to an unexpected, dramatic event - such as a bridge failure, they tend to begrudgingly follow government-placed detour signs and also poke around for a new path that allows them to complete their commute. As their long-accustomed-to primary route is out of service, drivers tend to stick with their first-experienced new routes - even if they are not particularly efficient. They would rather travel a known route than attempt to find a shorter route. One would think this new patterning would be readily tossed aside if the previous route, which was shorter and faster, was restored. That’s what happens during expected closures of familiar routes. However, when the I35W bridge was re-opened in 2008, demand did not bounce back to pre-collapse levels as expected - and the addition of lanes didn’t cause the dreaded Braess’ Paradox. THREE REASONS DRIVERS DIDN’T REVERT TO FASTER PRE-COLLAPSE ROUTES. These three facts might have influenced drivers’ behavior: (1) The unexpectedness of the I-35W Bridge collapse and the mandatory route changes some commuters were forced to make created inherent resistance to return the bridge following reopening; (2) The prolonged closure was lengthy enough for the benefits of route familiarity in the disrupted network to outweigh the low travel times found on the new bridge; and (3) The tragedy itself discouraged some commuters from returning to the site (SOURCE: MN DOT Research Services. Traffic Flow and Road User Impacts of the Collapse of the I-35W Bridge over the Mississippi River. David Levinson, Principal Investigator). SUMMARY. Three take-away points. (1) Humans tend to think individually and gravitate to the shortest or fastest path, often overloading it. This has been observed with new roads as well as drive-thru lines at restaurants. The phenomenon is known as Braess’ Paradox. (2) Following an unexpected disruption, an avoidance phenomenon is observed that will typically diminish over time. (3) And, in contrast, pre-planned disruptions, even with similar magnitude, generate much smaller impacts. Bonus tip. In a crisis, think the opposite of the masses. ACCORDING TO THE JOKER: “I just did what I do best. I took your little plan and I turned it on itself. Look what I did to this city with a few drums of gas and a couple of bullets. Hmmm? You know... You know what I've noticed? Nobody panics when things go "according to plan." Even if the plan is horrifying! If, tomorrow, I tell the press that, like, a gang banger will get shot, or a truckload of soldiers will be blown up, nobody panics, because it's all "part of the plan". But when I say that one little old mayor will die, well then everyone loses their minds. Introduce a little anarchy. Upset the established order, and everything becomes chaos. I'm an agent of chaos. Oh, and you know the thing about chaos? It's fair!” (quotation from Heath Ledger as The Joker in Christopher Nolan movie, The Dark Knight). FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. This is episode 169 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 02-08-2022.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Tuesday Jan 25, 2022
Tuesday Jan 25, 2022
In March 2020, you awoke to find that the government deemed you essential or nonessential. Over-the-road (OTR) haulers, or truck drivers, were deemed essential. But as the arrival of healthcare workers was celebrated with fire engine parades, truck drivers were spared recognition and told to shift into overdrive and deal with peeled back restrictions, including letting drivers with learner’s permits drive without their Commercial Drivers License (CDL) and changing hours of service guidelines so truckers could drive longer than they would be allowed to otherwise. In other words, truckers were directed to stretch themselves, and not just absent parades, but in a landscape of closed waysides, truck stops, restaurants -- while being told to stay in their cabs when picking up or delivering their cargo. Being a trucker before the pandemic meant choosing a profession under-appreciated by the public. During the pandemic, finite truckers were unfathomably treated as expendable. IN THIS EPISODE. Doc interviews former trucker Jonathan Burger to discuss the state of OTR haulers before the pandemic, at the onset of the pandemic, and now in 2022. Jonathan will talk about OTR haulers access to toilet facilities, restaurants, and places to park when they sleep. In addition, Jonathan will bring awareness to lesser known aspects of trucking including new Electronic Logging Device (ELD) mandates, negative behaviors within the trucker workforce, hazard pay (lack of), and lumpers. Doc and Jonathan consider how government and society might better demonstrate appreciation from truckers - the seemingly forgotten essential workers. ABOUT JONATHAN BURGER. Jonathan Burger has a YouTube channel focused on Second Amendment activism/advocacy. His channel is called Guns N BBQ as he periodically tosses in content about his hobby of barbecuing. He is a former armed security officer and corrections officer turned truck driver. Jonathan drove truck for just over 5 years before going blind. Shortly after losing his vision he decided to start a YouTube channel. Jonathan remains well-connected to the OTR hauler community and understands the lesser-understood nodes along the OTR hauler network. PRE-2020 STATE OF TRUCKING. Jonathan reminds us that the trucking industry had challenges prior to the pandemic. Overnight parking was particularly difficult to find and even booking ahead didn’t necessarily secure a spot for the rig. Fewer businesses were allowing truckers to park in their lots due to the poor behavior of some in the industry who would leave behind trash. IMPACT OF 2017 ELD MANDATE. On January 23, 2022, Grace Dean of Business Insider wrote an article titled: Truckers say an electronic device that measures the hours they drive each day sometimes leaves them stranded just 30 minutes from home. While truckers had maintained paper logging records for decades, electronic logging devices went into effect in 2017 for most rigs. The logs track when truckers drive and take breaks, but the system is inflexible. Jonathan offered an example of a trucker taking a break in the parking lot near a warehouse. A few minutes into the mandated break, someone asks the driver to move his truck to the end of the lot, perhaps a hundred feet away. When the truck begins to move, the ELD resets the break. Ultimately, the purpose of ELDs was to prevent fatigued drivers from being on the roads - so ELDs make sense, but in their current incarnation, they seem to be too restrictive. PANDEMIC RELAXED TRUCKING RULES WITHOUT SUPPORT TO TRUCKERS - LUMPERS CASH IN AS DRIVERS TOLD NOT TO UNLOAD THEIR FREIGHT. On March 13, 2020, the US government made an emergency relief declaration that allowed OTR drivers with expiring licenses to continue working, eliminated the 30-minute break requirement during 11 hours driving, and relaxed the 60/70-hour rule. However, neither federal or state governments took action to support truckers. Arizona opened two shuttered waysides with limited hours - so that was at least something. But, no hazard pay for truckers, no National Guard deployed to keep open waysides and supply food, showers, and basic care to truckers. County fairgrounds could have been temporarily opened for truckers, right? There were no hero parades for truckers - even as wait times increased for truckers to unload and they were told to stay in their rigs, cubed away from the world. BROWN BAG BOOST CAMPAIGN. Doc and Jonathan pondered items that might go into a brown bag that would be given, as a sign of support, for truckers at waysides or scales. Items included a thank you note, chunky soup, socks, plastic utensils, and 3D printed air vent diffusers. FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. ENDORSEMENTS. This is episode 168 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 01-25-2022.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Tuesday Jan 18, 2022
Tuesday Jan 18, 2022
Doc calls our attention to the strange disappearance of civic organizations in America. Peaking in the 1960s, tiny villages and big cities bustled with volunteers of all ages to build parks, serve as crossing guards, hold free throw shooting contests for kids, work voting stations, and pass local knowledge from generation to generation. There was a time when people prioritized the time to gather at local restaurants to discuss ways to volunteer and improve their community. HISTORY. Civic organizations in the US were closely tied to church-affiliated groups (Knights of Columbus), fraternal organizations (Freemasons), and also unions. The Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW) is an organization of U.S. war veterans. And while VFW posts were practically in every community in America following WWII, membership is dwindling and posts have been closed and consolidated. “Per a 2021 article by Faith Bottum of the Wall Street Journal, “The VFW has around 1.5 million members, a drop of a million from 1992. The average age is 67, with 400,000 members over 80. The largest organization of veterans' clubs, the American Legion, has two million members, down from 3.3 million in 1946.” POPULAR CIVIC ORGANIZATIONS. Rotary, Kiwanis, Lions, Jaycees, and Optimists are among the well-known volunteer groups of the latter half of the twentieth century. Most have been reduced to a small fraction of their halcyon days. According to a 2020 article by Payal Gangishetti of Nonprofit Sector News, “The Jaycees, founded in 1920, is a leadership training and civic organization for people between the ages 18 and 40. [It’s] peak membership was 360,000 in 1976 and today has just 12,000 members in the United States. Doc recalls the village Jaycees chapter building a playground near the river in the community of 1200 where he was raised in northern Wisconsin. “The park is still there,” noted Doc. “The Jaycees and other civic organizations' names and logos adorn the ‘Welcome to Town’ signs, but for practical purposes, the organizations are extinct. Maybe their endowment funds their fee for the placards on the main roads heading into town?” LOSS OF VESTING TO BUILD COMMUNITY CONNECTEDNESS AND PERSONAL PURPOSE. As Doc researched the relationship between volunteering in civic organizations and community safety, the literature review was similar to driving a car that was out of alignment. Everything pulled in the direction of how the individual benefited from volunteering and much less was written about the collective benefit of society or of the community. Doc interprets this as false-memory solipsism. In other words, the core value of a civic organization (as written in numerous articles) is the fulfillment of each member. What’s in it for me? Simply put, the literature review doesn’t match Doc’s experiences with civic organizations. BENEFITS TO VOLUNTEERS. The Mayo Clinic Health System says volunteering reduces stress levels and the risk of depression. Volunteers often learn valuable life and job skills while staying physically and mentally active. The Mayo Clinic cites a Longitudinal Study of Aging that concludes volunteers even live longer. Volunteers who have chronic or serious illnesses often experience less pain. HealthyPeople.gov -- a part of the Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion that is tasked with providing science-based, 10-year national objectives for improving the health of all Americans -- agrees. Healthy People points out that clubs offer emotional support and create a sense of community. BENEFIT TO THE COMMUNITY. Beyond enriching each individual volunteer, projects benefit the greater community in the manifestations of parks or mentoring. Groups might focus on raking leaves at somebody’s house. Build relationships - rally around people in need. A Lions Club in Windsor Locks (pop. 12,613), Connecticut ran the volunteer ambulance service in 2019! WHY THE DECLINE? The Loki argument is “The Internet” wiped out the organizations. But, this is recited by people who don’t recall the days before the Internet. The across-the-board declines in membership appeared in the 1980s. Most recently, remote work mobility and pandemic cocooning might have sealed the fates for many civic organizations. These organizations have adapted to social media platforms, but that isn’t a substitute for in vivo community enrichment activities. DOC’S CIVIC VOLUNTEERING. From 2004-2009, Doc served as a volunteer tour guide and handyman at historic Fort Winnebago Surgeons’ Quarters in Portage, Wisconsin. With his Dad, he re-built the split rail fence and the well. Doc also volunteered in various roles for the monthly community lunch at Couper Hall. FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. ENDORSEMENTS. This is episode 167 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 01-18-2022.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Tuesday Jan 11, 2022
Tuesday Jan 11, 2022
Doc was recently interviewed by a large-market news company assembling a documentary about youth violence directed at adults. Ultimately, the question of “What can be done to prevent this?” was asked. A staunch proponent of increasing funding, research, and training on threat identification and reporting, Dr. Perrodin delivered his versed spell-binder on the matter. When asked about sports, or perhaps the decline of youth sports, contributing to youth violence, Dr. Perrodin found himself conflicted with the research. YOUTH SPORTS PARTICIPATION IN AMERICA ARE DECREASING, INCREASING, or CONFUSING. Per the National Council of Youth Sports, “About 60 million children and teens from age 6 to 18 participate in organized sports each year with 73 percent involved in more than one sport.” But those numbers are complicated. From 2008 to 2018, Aspen Project Play found that the participation rate of kids between the ages of 6 and 12 dropped from 45 to 38 percent, due largely to the increasing costs, time commitments, and competitive nature of organized sports leagues. Statista reports (2019) reports that there are 50 million children in the United States between the ages of six and seventeen. DOES PARTICIPATING IN SPORTS DECREASE JUVENILE DELINQUENCY? According to a 2015 study published in the Journal of Youth and Adolescence, “Participation in sports activities is very popular among adolescents, and is frequently encouraged among youth. Many psychosocial health benefits in youth are attributed to sports participation, but to what extent this positive influence holds for juvenile delinquency is still not clear on both the theoretical and empirical level. SOURCE: doi: 10.1007/s10964-015-0389-7.” As Dr. Perrodin examined studies and meta-analysis reports, the findings largely fell into the same basin - there was not a statistical relation between youth sports participation and youth violence. The most prevalent connections were between youth physical activity and youth physical health. HOW ABOUT E-SPORTS? This is where things get interesting. When we think of youth sports, our minds are populated with images of baseball diamonds and folding-camp-chair-lined soccer fields. Though generating controversy over whether the pastime qualifies as true sport, E-Sports has exploded in popularity in recent years. In a 2019 Forbes article by Bob Cook, “At least seven state high school associations are offering esports at a varsity level, and more will add it. Even states without official varsity esports run state tournaments, and prizes can include scholarship money to one of the 115 colleges (and growing) fielding esports teams, and, in many cases, offering scholarships to gamers.” Complexity Gaming, a professional esports organization owned by Dallas Cowboys' owner and youth sports investor Jerry Jones, is building a training facility at the Cowboys' headquarters, The Star in Frisco, Texas. https://complexity.gg/ DO VIDEO GAMES MAKE YOUTH VIOLENT? No. This question is oft-asked, and the 2008 book Grand Theft Childhood by Harvard University’s Dr. Cheryl K. Olson and Dr. Lawrence Kutner is one of the most-cited works to debunk violent or graphic video games causing youth to engage in violent behavior. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YOUTH VIOLENCE RESEARCH? We are at a disruption point or possibly a convergence in what is considered a youth sport. Studies seeking to uncover relationships between participation in sports and violence must now include E-sports. What nuanced areas might be studied in E-sports? If Doc was assembling a research study, his constructs might be (1) badges and incentives; (2) social etiquette and moderating; (3) incidents of delinquent or violent behavior compared to non-sport youth; and (4) incidents of harm to self or harm to others compared to overall youth population. E-SPORTS AND INCLUSION. While traditional sports are difficult to access by youth with physical disabilities, E-Sports are more inclusive. You could have a wheelchair-using student be a captain of his school’s E-Sports team. What might be the impact of E-Sports on Title IV? FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. ENDORSEMENTS. This is episode 166 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 01-11-2022.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Tuesday Jan 04, 2022
Tuesday Jan 04, 2022
When his pool vacuum cleaner’s bearings failed, a Florida man didn’t bolt to Amazon to order an expensive replacement vacuum (in the slight chance it was in stock). Instead, he found open source code for a similar bearing, modified it, and then programmed his home 3D printer to make a new bearing. With the cost of operating the 3D printer at 75 watts per hour, and filament mere cents, and after a few trials, the pool vacuum was back in service for $3 of parts and power. IN THIS EPISODE. In this episode, Doc interviews flyingRich to learn about the arrival of 3D home printing as more than a novelty. In addition, flyingRich will talk about the positive impact of 3D printing in crisis situations, such as PPE items and ventilator parts as well as 3D printed mesh network solutions for antennas used in emergency communication conditions. ABOUT FLYINGRICH. flyingRich (spelled with lowercase f) has been doing tech podcasts for more than ten years (His YouTube channel is titled flyingRich). Rich is an advocate of open source software solutions. He is a regular host on "The Mini PC Show" on the PodNutz network that focuses on single board computing like the Raspberry Pi. Professionally he is a cloud engineer. Being a 3D printing enthusiast he combines the love of tech, open source & cloud computing. Rich is also a 1,000 hour instrument rated pilot. 3D HOME PRINTING NO LONGER A NOVELTY. Rich showed off a number of items that he had 3D printed, including a stand for his monitor and a specialized device to bend pipe. In fact, through open source computing and networking, Rich has worked with people across the world to design, refine, and 3D print parts for a range of applications. While the public might perceive home 3D printing as centered on toys, flutes, and trinkets, the reality is that actual houses are being 3D printed, hard-to-configure replacement parts for old homes, automotive parts, and even food. THINGIVERSE. Rich noted that much sharing exists within the 3D printing community. In particular, THINGIVERSE is a website dedicated to the sharing of user-created digital design files. “Providing primary free, open-source hardware designs licensed under the GNU General Public License or Creative Commons licenses, the site allows contributors to select a user license type for the designs that they share (Source: Wikipedia). 3D PRINTING IN DISASTERS. The December 2021 wildfire that destroyed 1000 homes in Boulder County or the tornado that ripped apart towns in the Kentucky region caused massive damage with little warning. How might mobile 3D printing units be deployed and benefit these areas? Rich and Doc explored this question. Rich felt that 3D printers could build many of the parts needed for geodesic domes, which are lattice shell structures. These are both strong and relatively easy to configure. They could provide shelter to people and animals or staging of assets. Doc felt that portable 3D printing units might yield much relief to hurricane stricken areas, such as the Bahamas. On a September 11, 2019 show, Doc interviewed German Parodi, a disability rights advocate. In that interview, Parodi explained that people (in the Bahamas) in need of catheters, for example, were unable to obtain them as large planes were unable to land at the damaged airport and it was time-consuming and red-tape-filled to have pallets broken into smaller shipments. A 3D printer might have offered other options in that scenario. FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. ENDORSEMENTS. This is episode 165 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 01-04-2022.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Wednesday Dec 29, 2021
Wednesday Dec 29, 2021
Doc discusses the mythical Loki, it’s societal role over time, and our present-day tendency to offload responsibility and accountability to Loki. In addition, Doc also examines The Straw Man Fallacy, which is often found lurking in the same shadows as the Loki. WHAT IS LOKI? Loki is the mythical Norse chaos god. Portrayed as everything from trickster to an evil force, Loki shoulders the blame for poor crops, storms, and personal strike. In present time, the concept of Loki takes the form of a pandemic. Blame the pandemic for store smash-and-grabs, inflation, and empty store shelves. PROBLEM WITH BLAMING LOKI. A thousand years ago, folks in the Netherlands might have blamed Loki for an unrelenting blizzard and frigid temperatures. Loki could also be used to explain unexpected deaths. Loki served a purpose - what couldn’t be attributed to scientific knowledge or benevolent gods could be shouldered by Loki. By blaming Loki, people didn’t dwell on the dire event, but instead acknowledged it, and moved on. It’s the moving on part that is key. Modern day Loki-blaming doesn’t include the “moving on” part. Instead, Loki relieves us of responsibility and accountability. Observe for Loki arguments in the media or made by others. In those instances, problems are pinned on Loki, but there is little attempt to move forward in life. However, there is a strategy that is often found where the contemporary Loki lurks -- and that is The Straw Man Fallacy. THE STRAW MAN FALLACY can be explained in the following 4 steps. (1) Ignore the real argument; (2) Create a pretend argument; (3) Defeat the pretend argument; and (4) Claim victory over the real argument. STRAW MAN FALLACY EXAMPLE WITH HOMELESSNESS. Here’s what The Straw Man Fallacy looks like when applied to homelessness in San Francisco. (1) Pivot away from homelessness as the main argument and instead make the main argument about lack of micro homes (8’ x 10’ portable homes). (2) Funding more micro homes will solve homelessness. (3) We built thousands of micro homes and set them up in parks or other places for homeless people to live in, hence no longer making them homeless. (4) We solved homelessness. Yet, in reality, homelessness in San Francisco wouldn’t (and hasn’t) been solved by micro homes. The now-micro-housed people need food, mental health treatment, substance abuse treatment, community building, job skills, and so on. If a person is jacket-less, giving him a jacket solves the issue. If a person is homeless, giving them a home doesn’t solve the issue. FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. ENDORSEMENTS. This is episode 164 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 12-29-2021.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com
Wednesday Dec 22, 2021
Wednesday Dec 22, 2021
On December 17, 2021, the CDC changed its guidance for students in schools who have been “close contacts” to persons that have tested positive for COVID-19. In this episode, Doc analyzes the new guidance, compares it to previous guidance, unpacks how contact tracing works in schools, and also takes a macro-look at overall immunization compliance in schools for students K-12 for mumps, measles, rubella, polio, and other required (non-COVID) vaccinations. Doc studied schools’ data and assembled a graphic with alarming information. Thanks to all of you for helping Doc surpass 1000 subscribers to his “The Safety Doc” YouTube channel. CDC TEST-TO-STAY. From the CDC: “Test to Stay combines contact tracing and serial testing (testing that is repeated at least twice during a seven-day period post-exposure) to allow asymptomatic school-associated close contacts who are not fully vaccinated and do not test positive for SARS-CoV-2 to continue in-person learning. Because fully vaccinated close contacts are not required to quarantine following exposure, they would not be included in Test to Stay. Students who participate in Test to Stay should consistently and correctly wear masks while in school and should stay home and isolate if they develop symptoms or test positive for SARS-CoV-2. In the studies done in Illinois and California, both the person with COVID-19 and the close contact had to be properly masked at the time of exposure to qualify for Test to Stay. If schools are considering implementing Test to Stay, they should also have robust contact tracing in place and access to testing resources (for example, testing supplies and personnel to conduct testing, or access to an existing community testing site), among other layered prevention strategies. Testing frequency can vary (for example, from twice in a seven-day period to daily), but more frequent testing can more quickly identify students who become infected with SARS-CoV-2 and need to isolate.” CONTACT TRACING IN SCHOOLS. Dr. Perrodin shares that most school districts in his state have fewer than 1000 students and do not employ a designated “contact tracer.” Close Contacts are determined by settings in the school’s schedule software. For example, identifying which students were in a 7th hour geometry course attended by a student who tested positive for COVID. Doc is skeptical of the test-to-stay guidance due to shorthanded schools and lack of tests. WISCONSIN STUDENT IMMUNIZATION COMPLIANCE CHECK. Wisconsin Immunization Law (State Statute 252.04)requires that each of the state’s 421 school districts annually submit a report of immunization compliance for students. The 2020-2021 compliance requirements are found at (https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/publications/p44021.pdf). Here are the requirements: K-5: 4 doses polio, 3 doses hepatitis B, 2 doses MMR, and 2 doses Varicella. Per Wisconsin DHS, students are compliant with the immunization law if they meet all of the minimum immunization requirements, are considered “in process”, or have a waiver on file. The percent of Students Compliant with Immunization Law in 2020-2021 in Wisconsin is publicly available at https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/publications/p02388a.pdf : Here are reports from 12 of Wisconsin’s 421 school districts: Blair Taylor 628 students total enrolled in district = no reports received; Beloit 5426 students with 389 students not in compliance = 92.82%; Baraboo = 100%; Ashland 1863 students with 95 students not in compliance = 94.87%; Butternut = no reports received; Columbus 1242 students with 30 students not in compliance = 97.52%; Fall River 492 students with 3 students not in compliance = 99.38%; Portage = 100%; Potosi = no reports give; Madison 25,503 students with 438 students not in compliance = 98.28%; Milwaukee 66,977 students with 6429 students not in compliance = 90.40%; and Montello (614 students with 29 students not in compliance = 95.22%. 32/421 (8%) school districts did not submit reports! This is abysmal, yet there are no statements from the DPI or DHS indicating efforts to complete the data sets. A diagram of this information is included in the corresponding blog post for episode 163 at safetyphd.com. FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE, BLOG & BOOKS: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David P. Perrodin, PhD. ENDORSEMENTS. This is episode 163 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 12-22-2021.
Purchase Dr. Perrodin’s Books:
- School of Errors – Rethinking School Safety in America. www.schooloferrors.com
- Velocity of Information - Human Thinking During Chaotic Times. www.velocityofinformation.com